Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 7

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia)

Referee: Leleu M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect


	Bastia		Rodez

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	3.75	Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.85
	1.98	3.63	3.87
	1.22	5.40	14.93	Watch
	1.92	3.6	3.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.73)	3.91 ↑ (3.8)	6.07 ↑ (4.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bastia
57.4%

Draw
25.9%

Rodez
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

24.4%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

25.3%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Rodez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rodez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rodez than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	42.9%	0%

Bastia - Rodez Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bastia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Rodez (3.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Rodez (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bastia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Rodez (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Placide J. (G) 34. Djedje D. 6. Guidi D. 3. Guevara J. 5. Ariss Z. 13. Ducrocq T. (C) 66. Janneh J. 9. Tomi F. 18. Zaouai A. 10. Boutrah A. 11. Ble M.	1. Braat Q. (G) 25. Galves N. 5. Jolibois C. 4. Magnin M. 3. Lipinski R. (C) 20. Ponti R. 26. Benchamma S. 6. Mendes J. 22. Joly O. 10. Baaloudj M. 9. Nagera K.
Substitutes
25. Aiki A. . Basset D. 21. Bathily Y. 40. Contena S. (G) 8. Karamoko I. 24. Meynadier T. 14. Sebas J.	7. Achi M. 18. Balde I. 15. Jean-Lambert E. 24. Laurent L. 16. Margueron L. (G) 28. Saka M. 14. Tourraine M.
Coaches
Tavenot B.	Santini D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Magnin M. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Boutrah A. ⚽, Ariss Z. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
58', 2 - 0, Ducrocq T. (Pen),
62', Zaouai A. ↓, Bathily Y. ↑,
64', Joly O. ↓, Achi M. ↑,
65', Galves N. ↓, Tourraine M. ↑,
65', Baaloudj M. ↓, Balde I. ↑,
75', Ble M. ↓, Karamoko I. ↑,
76', 2 - 1, Achi M. ⚽, Nagera K. (A),
80', Bathily Y. ↓, Meynadier T. ↑,
80', Mendes J. ↓, Saka M. ↑,
80', Ponti R. ↓, Jean-Lambert E. ↑,
82', Meynadier T. 🟨,
86', 2 - 2, Magnin M. ⚽, Jean-Lambert E. (A),
90+1', 2 - 3, Balde I. ⚽, Nagera K. (A),
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 2.

Bastia has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Rodez's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Rodez may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Bastia has had a series of away games.

In this match, Bastia is the team to beat.

There will not play in Bastia: Akueson G. (Injury) Basset D. (Injury) Bohnert F. (Injury) Etoga L. (Injury) Parravicini N. (Injury) Vincent C. (Injury)

There will not play in Rodez: Crombez E. (Inactive) Tebily H. (Inactive) Trouillet A. (Inactive) Vangi D. (Inactive) Younoussa W. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
20.09.25	Montpellier - Bastia	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Boulogne - Bastia	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Amiens - Bastia	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Bastia - Guingamp	1:3 ✺
22.08.25	Le Mans - Bastia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL
- Rodez AF
French Ligue 2
19.09.25	Rodez - Clermont	0:1 ✺
12.09.25	Le Mans - Rodez	0:1 ✺
29.08.25	Rodez - Boulogne	1:0 ✺
22.08.25	Rodez - Laval	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Saint-Étienne - Rodez	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
07.02.25	Rodez - Bastia	0:2
29.10.24	Bastia - Rodez	2:2
17.02.24	Bastia - Rodez	0:2
21.10.23	Rodez - Bastia	1:1
25.02.23	Rodez - Bastia	0:2
27.08.22	Bastia - Rodez	0:2
Club Friendly
14.07.22	Rodez - Bastia	0:2

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