Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 6

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Batta F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Montpellier		Bastia

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.25	3.75	Watch
	2	3.15	3.8
	1.99	3.27	4.29
	1.32	4.90	9.15	Watch
	1.98	3.3	3.81	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.34)	3.5 ↑ (3.12)	4.63 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
50.9%

Draw
28%

Bastia
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

29.8%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Montpellier's performance.

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bastia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Montpellier - Bastia Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 12 - 85.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montpellier: 67.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Bastia (2.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Bastia (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ngapandouetnbu S. (G) 3. El Hannach N. 15. Laporte J. 6. Jullien C. 17. Sainte-Luce T. 27. Omeragic B. (C) 11. Savanier T. 7. Mbuku N. 14. Orakpo V. 44. Chennahi T. 19. Mendy A.	30. Placide J. (G) 3. Guevara J. 24. Meynadier T. 4. Roncaglia A. 5. Ariss Z. (C) 13. Ducrocq T. 34. Djedje D. 18. Zaouai A. 21. Bathily Y. 25. Aiki A. 14. Sebas J.
Substitutes
77. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 35. Mahboub F. 1. Michel M. (G) 21. Mincarelli L. 23. Mouanga Y. 24. Ndiaye J. 18. Pays N.	11. Ble M. 10. Boutrah A. 6. Guidi D. 66. Janneh J. 8. Karamoko I. 1. Olmeta L. (G) 9. Tomi F.
Coaches
Camara Z.	Tavenot B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Jullien C. ⚽, Savanier T. (A),
18', 2 - 0, Mendy A. ⚽,
23', Djedje D. ↓, Karamoko I. ↑,
44', Karamoko I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sebas J. ↓, Tomi F. ↑,
55', Omeragic B. 🟨,
55', Ducrocq T. 🟨,
60', Aiki A. ↓, Boutrah A. ↑,
60', Bathily Y. ↓, Janneh J. ↑,
64', Ngapandouetnbu S. 🟨,
66', 🟨,
68', Chennahi T. ↓, Junior Pereira da Silva E. ↑,
72', Mbuku N. ↓, Pays N. ↑,
73', Guevara J. 🟨,
73', Zaouai A. ↓, Ble M. ↑,
80', Savanier T. ↓, Ndiaye J. ↑,
81', Orakpo V. ↓, Mahboub F. ↑,
81', El Hannach N. ↓, Mouanga Y. ↑,
87', Junior Pereira da Silva E. 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 2.

In recent matches, Montpellier has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bastia is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Bastia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Montpellier will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Montpellier: Fayad K. (Leg Injury) Gueguin A. (Inactive) Michel M. (Broken rib) Ngosso G. (Knee Injury) Tchato E. (Injury)

There will not play in Bastia: Basset D. (Injury) Janneh J. (Inactive) Parravicini N. (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Montpellier won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:4. (average 2.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 2
15.09.25	Guingamp - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Montpellier - Amiens	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Troyes - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
18.08.25	Le Mans - Montpellier	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	Montpellier - Red Star	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLWT
- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
16.09.25	Boulogne - Bastia	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Amiens - Bastia	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Bastia - Guingamp	1:3 ✺
22.08.25	Le Mans - Bastia	1:0 ✺
15.08.25	Bastia - Pau	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
01.08.20	Bastia - Montpellier	2:2
French Ligue 1
04.02.17	Montpellier - Bastia	2:1
19.11.16	Bastia - Montpellier	1:1
16.01.16	Bastia - Montpellier	1:0
24.10.15	Montpellier - Bastia	2:0
04.04.15	Montpellier - Bastia	3:1
08.11.14	Bastia - Montpellier	2:0

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