Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bayer Leverkusen		Borussia Mönchengladbach

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	6.25	Watch
	1.52	4.45	5.9	Watch
	1.53	4.54	6.3
	1.49	4.60	5.76	Watch
	1.53	4.58	6.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.65)	4.53 ↑ (4.5)	6.11 ↑ (4.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
63.2%

Draw
21.1%

Borussia Mönchengladbach
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

21.2%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.6%

23.7%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bayer Leverkusen's performance.

Borussia Mönchengladbach has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Borussia Mönchengladbach might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Mönchengladbach than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	9.3%	30.7%

Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach Predictions

Users Predictions: 74 users predict this event. Bayer will win (votes: 44 - 59.5%). Borussia M will win (votes: 23 - 31.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayer: 48.3% – 70.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 12 - 60%). Borussia M (votes: 6 - 30%). Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Borussia M (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Bayer (votes: 12 - 57.1%). Borussia M (votes: 7 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 5. Bade L. 12. Tapsoba E. 21. Lucas 10. Tillman M. 24. Garcia A. 20. Grimaldo A. (C) 30. Maza I. 17. Ben Seghir E. 14. Schick P.	33. Nicolas M. (G) 4. Diks K. 30. Elvedi N. 2. Chiarodia F. C. 29. Scally J. 27. Reitz R. (C) 6. Engelhardt Y. 26. Ullrich L. 7. Stoger K. 17. Castrop J. 18. Machino S.
Substitutes
13. Arthur 44. Belocian J. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 9. Echeverri C. 7. Hofmann J. 35. Kofane C. M. 36. Lomb N. (G) 19. Poku E. 16. Tape A.	5. Friedrich M. 34. Herrmann C. 20. Netz L. 10. Neuhaus F. 1. Omlin J. (G) 28. Ranos G. 13. Reyna G. 16. Sander P. 15. Tabakovic H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Ullrich L. 🟨,
37', Bade L. 🟨,
39', Quansah J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Ben Seghir E. 🟨,
49', Scally J. 🟨,
63', Bade L. ↓, Tape A. ↑,
63', Lucas ↓, Poku E. ↑,
70', 1 - 0, Tillman M. ⚽, Schick P. (A),
72', Castrop J. ↓, Neuhaus F. ↑,
74', Elvedi N. 🟨,
76', Ben Seghir E. ↓, Echeverri C. ↑,
76', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. M. ↑,
80', Stoger K. ↓, Reyna G. ↑,
80', Machino S. ↓, Tabakovic H. ↑,
84', Maza I. ↓, Hofmann J. ↑,
86', Chiarodia F. C. ↓, Ranos G. ↑,
86', Reitz R. ↓, Herrmann C. ↑,
89', Diks K. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 1, Tabakovic H. ⚽, Herrmann C. (A),
90+4', Tillman M. 🟨,
90+6', Grimaldo A. 🟨,
90+6', Hofmann J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Bayer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bayer is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Andrich R. (Red Card) Fernandez E. (Red Card) Palacios E. (Groin Injury) Sarco A. (International duty) Terrier M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Borussia M: Hack R. (Knee Injury) Kleindienst T. (Knee Injury) Ngoumou N. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia M: Swider N. (Illness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 45:23. (average 2.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:12. (average 2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Copenhagen - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.09.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Werder Bremen - Bayer Leverkusen	3:3 ✺
23.08.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	1:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
15.08.25	Sonnenhof Großaspach - Bayer Leverkusen	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TWTLW
- Borussia Mönchengladbach
German Bundesliga
14.09.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Werder Bremen	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
05.09.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Schalke 04	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
30.08.25	Stuttgart - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.25	Atlas Delmenhorst - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
18.01.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:1
23.08.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
27.01.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0
26.08.23	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer Leverkusen	0:3
21.05.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:2
22.01.23	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer Leverkusen	2:3
15.01.22	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2

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