Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Relegation - Final

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		Farense

	1	X	2
	2.75	3	2.55
	2.68	3.15	2.58
	2.83	3.09	2.76
	2.8	2.97	2.7	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.5
	2.68	3.14	2.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↓ (2.95)	3.04 ↓ (3.1)	2.61 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
33.8%

Draw
30.6%

Farense
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

29.4%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

28.6%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Farense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Belenenses - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Belenenses will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Oliveira G. (G) 2. Machado J. 39. Pinto A. 4. Nuno Tomas (C) 15. Lucas J. 20. Paulo D. 21. Morgado T. 17. Horta Leitao D. 14. Afonso A. 23. Bruninho 89. Gastao J.	99. Araujo B. (G) 26. Ruben 29. Claudio Falcao (C) 6. Derick Poloni 78. Alex Pinto 20. Semedo Y. 8. Menino M. 34. Herrero T. 17. Candeias A. 19. Oliveira L. 80. Ndiaye A.
Substitutes
22. Bandarra M. 27. Barros E. 13. Cuca 31. David Rebelo 11. Duda 7. Eduardo W. 28. Pinto G. (G) 5. Teixeira J. 19. Valente A.	10. Almeida B. 4. Alysson 9. Carter A. 22. Carvalho M. (G) 7. Costa R. 21. Jaiminho 77. Matias M. 14. Poveda D. 88. Teixeira R.
Coaches
Brandao G.	Jose Faria

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+4', Semedo Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Afonso A. 🟨,
61', Morgado T. ↓, Duda ↑,
67', Paulo D. 🟨,
72', Lucas J. ↓, David Rebelo ↑,
72', Bruninho ↓, Barros E. ↑,
72', Semedo Y. ↓, Almeida B. ↑,
72', Oliveira L. ↓, Carter A. ↑,
76', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
83', Menino M. ↓, Alysson ↑,
83', Derick Poloni ↓, Jaiminho ↑,
83', Nuno Tomas ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,
83', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
90+4', Candeias A. ↓, Matias M. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 0-1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Belenenses won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	SC Farense	6	3	2	1	11:5	6	11

Last Results with these Odds

Belenenses - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 30.88%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 2
23.05.26	Farense - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
16.05.26	Belenenses - Mafra	3:1 ✺
10.05.26	Varzim - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Belenenses - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Amarante - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWTT
- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
23.05.26	Farense - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	Portimonense - Farense	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Farense - Paços de Ferreira	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Leiria - Farense	0:3 ✺
25.04.26	Farense - Académico de Viseu	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
23.05.26	Farense - Belenenses	1:0

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