Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 12

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Academia Vitoria SC (Guimarães) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Portugal	11:00	Canal 11


	Vitoria Guimarães B		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.1
	2.08	3.15	3.1
	2.22	3.18	3.25
	2.2	3.26	3.23	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.2
	2.15	3.1	3.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (2.08)	3.17 ↑ (3.16)	3.18 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães B
42.6%

Draw
28.7%

Mafra
28.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.8%

28.9%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

29.2%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães B than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Vitoria Guimarães B - Mafra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Guilherme (G) 96. Rodrigo Silva 76. Alcobia 93. Rika 82. Dias F. 80. Rocha R. 46. Nunes H. (C) 56. Verdi S. 50. Zeega 33. Opara E. 32. Tepe M.	1. Lemos F. (G) 52. Xico 90. Moreira R. 3. Alves K. 5. Beni D. 46. Sambu B. (C) 20. Maiga Y. 85. Neves L. 19. Iheanacho S. 7. Matos R. 9. Niang M.
Substitutes
67. Bruma 97. Carreira D. 60. Deivid M. 81. Fernandes J. (G) 73. Miguel Vaz 75. Oliveira A. 70. Peixoto R. 55. Rebelo D. 72. Rodrigues T.	39. Andrey 30. Ninte M. 6. Pinto R. 4. Queta M. 13. Raposo C. 23. Serra S. 33. Silva P. (G) 96. So S. 8. Teixeira L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Neves L. ⚽, Niang M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Beni D. ↓, Raposo C. ↑,
61', Matos R. ↓, Andrey ↑,
69', 0 - 2, Niang M. ⚽, Neves L. (A),
73', Zeega ↓, Deivid M. ↑,
73', Opara E. ↓, Bruma ↑,
73', Tepe M. ↓, Miguel Vaz ↑,
75', Neves L. ↓, Serra S. ↑,
76', Iheanacho S. ↓, Ninte M. ↑,
83', Nunes H. 🟥,
87', Lemos F. 🟨,
89', Verdi S. ↓, Rebelo D. ↑,
90+2', Alcobia 🟨,
90+3', Niang M. ↓, So S. ↑,
90+5', Rocha R. 🟨,
90+6', Alves K. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 4 and 5).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Mafra has had a series of home games.

Guimarães B will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães B won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães B won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Mafra - the odds 3.35 are the expected chance of winning is 27.28%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães B
Portuguese Liga 3
25.04.26	Varzim - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - União de Santarém	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Belenenses - Vitoria Guimarães B	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Amarante - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TTTWL
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 3
25.04.26	Mafra - Trofense	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Mafra - Amarante	1:4 ✺
11.04.26	Varzim - Mafra	0:2 ✺
03.04.26	Mafra - União de Santarém	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Mafra - Belenenses	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
08.03.26	Mafra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:2
Portuguese Liga 2
28.01.19	Vitoria Guimarães B - Mafra	1:2
18.08.18	Mafra - Vitoria Guimarães B	2:0
10.04.16	Vitoria Guimarães B - Mafra	1:0
21.11.15	Mafra - Vitoria Guimarães B	1:1

Vitoria Guimarães B - Mafra