Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 15

Date: 22 December 2023, Friday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Referee: Rodrigues A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3


	Belenenses		Santa Clara

	1	X	2
	5	3.75	1.67
	4.75	3.4	1.65	Watch
	5.5	3.6	1.65	Watch
	5.58	3.79	1.68
	5.62	3.79	1.68
	4.6	3.5	1.62
	5	3.6	1.67
	4.5	3.5	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.07 ↑ (3.81)	3.62 ↑ (3.34)	1.66 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
18.3%

Draw
25.7%

Santa Clara
55.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.5%

28%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

27.7%

48.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Belenenses's form might have worsened.

Santa Clara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santa Clara's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Belenenses, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santa Clara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	15%	85%

Belenenses - Santa Clara Predictions

Users Predictions: Santa Clara will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.35% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Oliveira G. (G) 25. Carvalho P. 3. Fabao 13. Serra A. 37. Akas C. 48. Manso T. 11. Sambu M. 19. Valente D. (C) 16. Chapi 10. Tavares M. 9. Matos R.	1. Gabriel Batista (G) 23. Lima S. 4. Pacheco P. 13. Rocha L. 42. Lucas Soares 77. Klismahn G. 35. Serginho 16. Henrique P. (C) 19. Almeida B. 99. Rafael Martins 10. Ricardinho
Substitutes
18. Attard C. 33. Correia R. 8. Gomes Tavares D. 22. Grilo D. (G) 77. Keita M. 17. Moninhas T. 5. Peres T. 99. Silva M.	18. Ageu E. 11. Andrezinho 74. Diaz M. (G) 2. Diogo Calila 9. Joao Marcos 32. MT 25. Pires M. 6. Velazquez S. 70. Vinicius Lopes
Coaches
Faisca V.	Pires L.

Preview

Recent matches Belenenses is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Santa Clara is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

In this match Santa Clara is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 2
16.12.23	Nacional - Belenenses	5:0 ✺
10.12.23	Belenenses - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
01.12.23	Académico de Viseu - Belenenses	3:1 ✺
19.11.23	Belenenses - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
10.11.23	Feirense - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLWL
- CD Santa Clara
Portuguese Liga 2
17.12.23	Santa Clara - Porto B	2:1 ✺
09.12.23	Tondela - Santa Clara	2:3 ✺
03.12.23	Santa Clara - Marítimo	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
26.11.23	Elvas - Santa Clara	1:2 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
18.11.23	Paços de Ferreira - Santa Clara	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWWWW

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