Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 24

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Rodrigues A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV


	Tondela		Santa Clara

	1	X	2
	3.2	3	2.4	Watch
	3.15	2.88	2.48	Watch
	3.37	2.97	2.51
	3.24	2.95	2.47	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.38	Watch
	3.35	2.99	2.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↓ (3.29)	2.95 ↓ (3.01)	2.46 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Tondela
29.3%

Draw
32.2%

Santa Clara
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

31.4%

39.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

28.8%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	55.6%	0%

Tondela - Santa Clara Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tondela (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 2. Bebeto (C) 44. Silva J. 4. Marques C. 20. Medina B. 27. Conceicao R. 7. Pedro Maranhao 32. Rodriguez J. 10. Hodge J. 79. Felix H. 23. Kimpioka B.	1. Gabriel Batista (C) 2. Diogo Calila 94. Silva H. 23. Lima S. 5. Guilherme Romao 35. Serginho 8. Ferreira P. 65. Tavares J. 70. Vinicius Lopes 26. Fernando 10. Gabriel Silva
Substitutes
5. Afonso J. 90. Aiko M. 30. Canizares L. (G) 14. Huarte X. 48. Manso T. 70. Moudjatovic M. 16. Rony Lopes 8. Tavares H. 26. van der Heide A.	11. Brenner 37. Darlan 7. Elias Manoel 77. Gustavo Klismahn 42. Lucas Soares 12. Neneca (G) 4. Pacheco P. 39. Paciencia G. 49. Welinton Torrao
Coaches
Bacci C.	Petit

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Lima S. 🟨,
10', 1 - 0, Bebeto (Penalty Awarded),
15', 1 - 1, Gabriel Silva ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', Felix H. ↓, Rony Lopes ↑,
60', 2 - 1, Conceicao R. ⚽, Rony Lopes (A),
64', Tavares J. ↓, Paciencia G. ↑,
64', Vinicius Lopes ↓, Welinton Torrao ↑,
69', Rony Lopes 🟨,
71', Rodriguez J. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
71', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Aiko M. ↑,
71', Diogo Calila ↓, Lucas Soares ↑,
74', Silva H. 🟨,
86', Medina B. 🟨,
87', Kimpioka B. 🟨,
88', 2 - 2, Serginho (Penalty Awarded),
89', Ferreira P. ↓, Darlan ↑,
89', Fernando ↓, Elias Manoel ↑,
90+3', Rony Lopes ↓, Moudjatovic M. ↑,
90+4', Hodge J. ↓, Huarte X. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 3.

Recent performances by Tondela have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Santa Clara is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Tondela: Cicero (Yellow Cards) Sithole S. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Santa Clara: Venancio F. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Tondela: Aiko M. (Injury) Cicero (Injury) Maviram E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Santa Clara: MT (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:21. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.8:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	12:4	8	18

Last Results with these Odds

Tondela - the odds 3.29 are the expected chance of winning is 28.73%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
20.02.26	Estrela da Amadora - Tondela	0:2 ✺
13.02.26	Tondela - Alverca	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Estoril Praia - Tondela	2:2 ✺
01.02.26	Tondela - Benfica	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Famalicão - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WTTTL
- CD Santa Clara
Liga Portugal
21.02.26	Alverca - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Santa Clara - Benfica	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Estrela da Amadora - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Santa Clara - Estoril Praia	2:4 ✺
24.01.26	Moreirense - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
27.09.25	Santa Clara - Tondela	1:2
Portuguese Liga 2
20.04.24	Santa Clara - Tondela	1:0
09.12.23	Tondela - Santa Clara	2:3
Portuguese League Cup
29.07.23	Santa Clara - Tondela	0:1 penalties
Taça de Portugal
15.10.22	Tondela - Santa Clara	2:0
Liga Portugal
16.01.22	Santa Clara - Tondela	2:2
08.08.21	Tondela - Santa Clara	3:0

Tondela - Santa Clara: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide