Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 14

Date: 16 December 2023, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV3


	Nacional		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	1.57	4	5.75
	1.55	3.8	5
	1.57	4	5.5	Watch
	1.56	4.24	6.09
	1.57	4.24	6.09
	1.53	3.8	4.8
	1.55	4	5.45
	1.54	3.85	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.57)	3.99 ↓ (4.08)	5.49 ↓ (5.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
59.8%

Draw
23.3%

Belenenses
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

23.1%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

22.5%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Nacional - Belenenses Predictions

Users Predictions: Nacional will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Lucas Franca (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 33. Goncalves C. 40. Ulisses 5. Jose Gomes 10. Esteves L. 8. Danilovic V. 18. Sousa A. 77. Gustavo 9. Ramirez J. 11. Witi	14. Oliveira G. (G) 25. Carvalho P. 13. Serra A. 37. Akas C. 48. Manso T. 16. Chapi 19. Valente D. (C) 21. Pina R. 11. Sambu M. 10. Tavares M. 9. Matos R.
Substitutes
28. Carlos Daniel 1. Encarnacao R. (G) 20. Jota Garces 7. Macedo R. 21. Marakis S. 55. Sousa A.	7. Cle 33. Correia R. 3. Fabao 8. Gomes Tavares D. 22. Grilo D. (G) 77. Keita M. 17. Moninhas T. 5. Peres T. 99. Silva M.
Coaches
Margarido T.	Faisca V.

Preview

Nacional is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Belenenses is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Belenenses could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Nacional is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Nacional to win the game is with odds 1.6.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese Liga 2
09.12.23	Benfica B - Nacional	2:1 ✺
02.12.23	Nacional - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
25.11.23	Nacional - Casa Pia	1:0 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
19.11.23	AVS - Nacional	0:1 ✺
11.11.23	Nacional - Leiria	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 LWWWW
- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 2
10.12.23	Belenenses - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
01.12.23	Académico de Viseu - Belenenses	3:1 ✺
19.11.23	Belenenses - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
10.11.23	Feirense - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
04.11.23	Belenenses - Vilaverdense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWLL

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