Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 2 October 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 4, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	16:00	ESPN
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 6
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 6, Pickx+ Sports 6
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 5, Moja TV
Brazil	16:00	Max
Cameroon	20:00	CRTV Sports
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	ESPN 3
China	03:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	14:00	ESPN 3
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	21:00	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2, MTV Urheilu 3
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 4
Georgia	23:00	Silk Sport 2
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 3, Cosmote Sport 4K
Hong Kong	03:00	Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	19:00	Stod 2 Sport 2, Viaplay
India	00:30	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, Sky Sport 255
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	13:00	Caliente TV
Myanmar	01:30	Canal+ Myanmar
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Central America	—	SportsMax 2 Caribbean
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 4
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	22:00	TRT Spor
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 7
Usa	15:00	CBS, Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Inter
Vietnam	02:00	TV 360
International	19:00	Disney+, JioTV app, SportsMax App


	Benfica		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.4	2.63
	2.6	3.3	2.7
	2.68	3.35	2.75
	2.73	3.35	2.77
	2.75	3.27	2.73
	2.7	3.3	2.7
	2.79	3.4	2.76
	2.68	3.4	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↓ (3.02)	3.35 ↓ (3.47)	2.72 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
35.8%

Draw
28.8%

Atlético Madrid
35.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.8%

27.7%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

28.9%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Benfica that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	50%	31.8%

Benfica - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 8 - 19.5%). Atlético will win (votes: 12 - 29.3%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 51.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 66.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 6. Bah A. 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 3. Carreras A. 8. Aursnes F. 61. Florentino 10. Kokcu O. 11. Di Maria A. 14. Pavlidis V. 17. Akturkoglu K.	13. Oblak J. (G) 23. Mandava R. 2. Gimenez J. M. 20. Witsel A. 14. Llorente M. 5. de Paul R. 6. Koke (C) 12. Lino S. 7. Griezmann A. 10. Correa A. 19. Alvarez J.
Substitutes
7. Amdouni Z. 81. Bajrami A. 18. Barreiro L. 37. Beste J. 9. Cabral A. 75. Gomes A. (G) 28. Kabore I. 25. Prestianni G. 32. Rollheiser B. 21. Schjelderup A. 4. Silva A. 24. Soares S. (G)	21. Galan J. 4. Gallagher C. 31. Gomis A. (G) 11. Lemar T. 15. Lenglet C. 16. Molina N. 1. Musso J. (G) 17. Riquelme R. 29. Serrano J. 22. Simeone G. 9. Sorloth A. 43. Spina G.
Coaches
Lage B.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Akturkoglu K. ⚽, Aursnes F. (A),
23', Aursnes F. 🟨,
33', Llorente M. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Griezmann A. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
46', de Paul R. ↓, Serrano J. ↑,
46', Koke ↓, Gallagher C. ↑,
52', 2 - 0, Di Maria A. (Pen),
60', Alvarez J. ↓, Simeone G. ↑,
60', Pavlidis V. ↓, Amdouni Z. ↑,
70', Serrano J. 🟨,
71', Di Maria A. ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
71', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
75', 3 - 0, Bah A. ⚽, Beste J. (A),
83', Gimenez J. M. 🟨,
83', Mandava R. 🟨,
84', 4 - 0, Kokcu O. (Pen),
85', Bah A. ↓, Silva A. ↑,
86', Kokcu O. ↓, Barreiro L. ↑,
90+5', Correa A. 🟨,

Preview

Benfica in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Atlético is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Benfica could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Benfica: Gouveia T. (Shoulder Injury) Sanches R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Azpilicueta C. (Calf Injury) Le Normand R. (Head Injury)

There are questionable in Benfica: Aursnes F. (Injury) Bah A. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Benfica won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 1.5:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Benfica won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
28.09.24	Benfica - Gil Vicente	5:1 ✺
23.09.24	Boavista - Benfica	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.24	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Benfica	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
14.09.24	Benfica - Santa Clara	4:1 ✺
30.08.24	Moreirense - Benfica	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWWT
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
29.09.24	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
26.09.24	Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
22.09.24	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.24	Atlético Madrid - RB Leipzig	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
15.09.24	Atlético Madrid - Valencia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
08.12.15	Benfica - Atlético Madrid	1:2
30.09.15	Atlético Madrid - Benfica	1:2

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