Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 2 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 4, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
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World	Disney+, JioTV app, SportsMax App


	Benfica		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.4	2.63
	2.6	3.3	2.7
	2.68	3.35	2.75
	2.73	3.35	2.77
	2.75	3.27	2.73
	2.7	3.3	2.7
	2.79	3.4	2.76
	2.68	3.4	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↓ (3.02)	3.35 ↓ (3.47)	2.72 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
35.8%

Draw
28.8%

Atlético Madrid
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

27.7%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

28.9%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Benfica that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	50%	31.8%

Benfica - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 8 - 19.5%). Atlético will win (votes: 12 - 29.3%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 51.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 66.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 6. Bah A. 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 3. Carreras A. 8. Aursnes F. 61. Florentino 10. Kokcu O. 11. Di Maria A. 14. Pavlidis V. 17. Akturkoglu K.	13. Oblak J. (G) 23. Mandava R. 2. Gimenez J. M. 20. Witsel A. 14. Llorente M. 5. de Paul R. 6. Koke (C) 12. Lino S. 7. Griezmann A. 10. Correa A. 19. Alvarez J.
Substitutes
7. Amdouni Z. 81. Bajrami A. 18. Barreiro L. 37. Beste J. 9. Cabral A. 75. Gomes A. (G) 28. Kabore I. 25. Prestianni G. 32. Rollheiser B. 21. Schjelderup A. 4. Silva A. 24. Soares S. (G)	21. Galan J. 4. Gallagher C. 31. Gomis A. (G) 11. Lemar T. 15. Lenglet C. 16. Molina N. 1. Musso J. (G) 17. Riquelme R. 29. Serrano J. 22. Simeone G. 9. Sorloth A. 43. Spina G.
Coaches
Lage B.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Akturkoglu K. ⚽, Aursnes F. (A),
23', Aursnes F. 🟨,
33', Llorente M. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Griezmann A. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
46', de Paul R. ↓, Serrano J. ↑,
46', Koke ↓, Gallagher C. ↑,
52', 2 - 0, Di Maria A. (Pen),
60', Alvarez J. ↓, Simeone G. ↑,
60', Pavlidis V. ↓, Amdouni Z. ↑,
70', Serrano J. 🟨,
71', Di Maria A. ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
71', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
75', 3 - 0, Bah A. ⚽, Beste J. (A),
83', Gimenez J. M. 🟨,
83', Mandava R. 🟨,
84', 4 - 0, Kokcu O. (Pen),
85', Bah A. ↓, Silva A. ↑,
86', Kokcu O. ↓, Barreiro L. ↑,
90+5', Correa A. 🟨,

Preview

Benfica in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Atlético is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Benfica could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Benfica: Gouveia T. (Shoulder Injury) Sanches R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Azpilicueta C. (Calf Injury) Le Normand R. (Head Injury)

There are questionable in Benfica: Aursnes F. (Injury) Bah A. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Benfica won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 1.5:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Benfica won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
28.09.24	Benfica - Gil Vicente	5:1 ✺
23.09.24	Boavista - Benfica	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.24	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Benfica	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
14.09.24	Benfica - Santa Clara	4:1 ✺
30.08.24	Moreirense - Benfica	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWWT
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
29.09.24	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
26.09.24	Celta de Vigo - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
22.09.24	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.09.24	Atlético Madrid - RB Leipzig	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
15.09.24	Atlético Madrid - Valencia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
08.12.15	Benfica - Atlético Madrid	1:2
30.09.15	Atlético Madrid - Benfica	1:2

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