Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 19 September 2024, Thursday

Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Kruzliak I. (Svk)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport Variety 1
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Venezuela	Inter
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World	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, SportsMax App


	Atlético Madrid		RB Leipzig

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.8	4.75
	1.75	3.8	4.5
	1.75	3.9	4.75
	1.75	3.85	5.08
	1.77	3.85	4.74
	1.73	3.9	4.75
	1.77	4.16	4.78
	1.75	3.9	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.85)	3.9 ↓ (3.91)	4.76 ↑ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
55%

Draw
24.7%

RB Leipzig
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

24.5%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

27.5%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.5%	15.4%	5.1%

Atlético Madrid - RB Leipzig Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (61 of 76 users predict this - 80.26%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.31% – 89.21%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Oblak J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 24. Le Normand R. 2. Gimenez J. M. 23. Mandava R. 17. Riquelme R. 5. de Paul R. 6. Koke (C) 7. Griezmann A. 19. Alvarez J. 10. Correa A.	1. Gulacsi P. (G) 4. Orban W. (C) 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. 39. Henrichs B. 8. Haidara A. 18. Vermeeren A. 10. Simons X. 30. Sesko B. 7. Nusa A. 11. Openda L.
Substitutes
3. Azpilicueta C. 21. Galan J. 4. Gallagher C. 31. Gomis A. (G) 15. Lenglet C. 12. Lino S. 16. Molina N. 1. Musso J. (G) 29. Serrano J. 22. Simeone G. 9. Sorloth A. 20. Witsel A.	19. Andre Silva 14. Baumgartner C. 5. Bitshiabu E. 6. Elmas E. 47. Gebel V. 3. Geertruida L. 44. Kampl K. 16. Klostermann L. 9. Poulsen Y. 13. Seiwald N. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G)
Coaches
Simeone D.	Rose M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Sesko B. ⚽, Openda L. (A),
10', Le Normand R. 🟨,
28', 1 - 1, Griezmann A. ⚽, Llorente M. (A),
39', Lukeba C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nusa A. ↓, Baumgartner C. ↑,
49', Baumgartner C. 🟨,
60', de Paul R. 🟨,
60', Vermeeren A. ↓, Seiwald N. ↑,
60', Gimenez J. M. 🟨,
63', Riquelme R. ↓, Lino S. ↑,
63', Alvarez J. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
63', de Paul R. ↓, Gallagher C. ↑,
64', Henrichs B. 🟨,
66', Correa A. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
69', Sesko B. ↓, Poulsen Y. ↑,
69', Henrichs B. ↓, Geertruida L. ↑,
83', Simons X. ↓, Elmas E. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Gimenez J. M. ⚽, Griezmann A. (A),
90+2', Griezmann A. ↓, Witsel A. ↑,
90+4', Openda L. 🟨,

Preview

Atlético is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

RB Leipzig is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Atlético is a favorite.

There will not play in Atlético: Barrios P. (Muscle Injury) Lemar T. (Injury)

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Schlager X. (Knee Injury)

Our prediction for today's Atlético to win the game is with odds 1.77.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Atlético won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
15.09.24	Atlético Madrid - Valencia	3:0 ✺
31.08.24	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
28.08.24	Atlético Madrid - Espanyol	0:0 ✺
25.08.24	Atlético Madrid - Girona	3:0 ✺
19.08.24	Villarreal - Atlético Madrid	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWTWT
- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
14.09.24	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.24	RB Leipzig - Meuselwitz	3:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
31.08.24	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	2:3 ✺
24.08.24	RB Leipzig - Bochum	1:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.24	Rot-Weiß Essen - RB Leipzig	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
13.08.20	RB Leipzig - Atlético Madrid	2:1

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