Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 13

Date: 9 December 2023, Saturday


	Benfica B		Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.4	2.45
	2.65	3.2	2.3
	2.7	3.4	2.45	Watch
	2.85	3.5	2.54
	2.89	3.46	2.52
	2.6	3.25	2.3
	2.7	3.44	2.39
	2.65	3.3	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.5)	3.37 ↑ (3.33)	2.42 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica B
34.1%

Draw
27.5%

Nacional
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

28.5%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

29.7%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica B than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Benfica B, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	9.1%	72.7%

Benfica B - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Benfica B will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Nacional will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Kokubo L. (G) 71. Tome J. 76. Gustavo Marques 62. Lacroix L. 48. Rodrigues R. (C) 60. Felix N. 86. Prioste D. 84. Rego J. 80. Santos P. 88. Caue 77. Sousa G.	37. Lucas Franca (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 4. Paulo Vitor 40. Ulisses 5. Jose Gomes 10. Esteves L. 8. Danilovic V. 28. Carlos Daniel 77. Gustavo 9. Ramirez J. 11. Witi
Substitutes
90. Benchimol 79. Felix H. 55. Fonseca J. 78. Kiko 83. Luis R. 58. Maestro 57. Precatado J. 98. Ribeiro R. (G) 89. Varela G.	99. Dudu 1. Encarnacao R. (G) 33. Goncalves C. 20. Jota Garces 7. Macedo R. 21. Marakis S. 27. Raimar 18. Sousa A. 55. Sousa A.
Coaches
Verissimo N.	Margarido T.

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Benfica B won 2.

Benfica B is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Nacional is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Nacional have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Benfica B won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Benfica B won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Benfica B
English Premier League International Cup
06.12.23	Crystal Palace U21 - Benfica B	2:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
02.12.23	AVS - Benfica B	1:0 ✺
25.11.23	Benfica B - Oliveirense	1:1 ✺
12.11.23	Académico de Viseu - Benfica B	1:0 ✺
04.11.23	Benfica B - Penafiel	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTLW
- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese Liga 2
02.12.23	Nacional - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
25.11.23	Nacional - Casa Pia	1:0 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
19.11.23	AVS - Nacional	0:1 ✺
11.11.23	Nacional - Leiria	2:0 ✺
04.11.23	Nacional - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
07.05.23	Benfica B - Nacional	1:2
29.12.22	Nacional - Benfica B	2:0
16.01.22	Nacional - Benfica B	0:3
09.08.21	Benfica B - Nacional	5:0
08.03.20	Nacional - Benfica B	3:1
26.10.19	Benfica B - Nacional	1:0
20.01.18	Nacional - Benfica B	2:0

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