Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 15

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do CD das Aves (Vila das Aves)

Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine


	AVS		Nacional

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.4	2.25	Watch
	3.15	3.2	2.28	Watch
	3.22	3.24	2.31
	3.19	3.26	2.31	Watch
	3.1	3	2.3	Watch
	3.27	3.28	2.38	Watch
	3.14	3.14	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.16 ↑ (2.98)	3.22 ↑ (3.19)	2.31 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

AVS
29.8%

Draw
29.3%

Nacional
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

29.6%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

30.4%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	9.5%	81%

AVS - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. AVS will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Nacional will win (votes: 17 - 81%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 64.2% – 97.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. AVS (votes: 3 - 30%). Nacional (votes: 5 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Simao (G) 42. Devenish C. 35. Semedo R. 3. Paulo Vitor 2. Spencer D. 8. Pedro Lima 15. Grau J. 24. Kiki (C) 11. Akinsola T. 7. Tomane 14. Perea O.	1. Kaique Pereira (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 38. Ze Vitor 33. Goncalves C. 24. Vallier L. 6. Matheus Dias 8. Baeza M. 99. Pablo Ruan 28. Liziero 11. Paulinho Boia 9. Ramirez J.
Substitutes
27. Algobia A. 6. Assuncao G. 10. Barbosa R. 9. Escobar J. 99. Joao Goncalves (G) 21. Neiva G. 18. Nene 12. Rivas L. 33. Santos A.	10. Daniel Junior 19. Joao L. 5. Jose Gomes 15. Labidi C. 37. Lucas Franca (G) 17. Nourani M. 16. Nunez A. 18. Sousa A. 30. Watts
Coaches
Sousa J. P.	Margarido T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Tomane ⚽,
44', 2 - 0, Akinsola T. ⚽, Spencer D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Matheus Dias ↓, Jose Gomes ↑,
46', Vallier L. ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
51', 2 - 1, Ze Vitor ⚽, Labidi C. (A),
57', Tomane 🟨,
61', 2 - 2, Ramirez J. ⚽,
68', Kiki ↓, Rivas L. ↑,
68', Perea O. ↓, Barbosa R. ↑,
70', Semedo R. 🟥,
81', Grau J. ↓, Santos A. ↑,
81', Pedro Lima ↓, Assuncao G. ↑,
83', Pablo Ruan ↓, Nourani M. ↑,
83', Baeza M. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
85', Tomane ↓, Escobar J. ↑,
90+3', Liziero ↓, Sousa A. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 13).

Recent performances by AVS have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nacional is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nacional could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in AVS: Molina G. (Inactive)

There will not play in Nacional: Deivison (Red Card) Fernandes I. (Injury) Leo Santos (Yellow Cards) Soares F. (Injury) Ulisses (Injury) Witi (International duty)

There are questionable in AVS: Galletto T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Nacional: Jose Gomes (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, AVS won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, AVS won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

AVS - the odds 2.98 are the expected chance of winning is 31.69%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Nacional - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 38.7%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AVS Futebol SAD
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
13.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - AVS	6:0 ✺
06.12.25	AVS - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
28.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - AVS	4:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	AVS - Académico de Viseu	1:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLLLW
- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
15.12.25	Nacional - Tondela	3:1 ✺
07.12.25	Alverca - Nacional	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Nacional - Benfica	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Braga - Nacional	4:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
19.01.25	Nacional - AVS	3:1
10.08.24	AVS - Nacional	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
06.04.24	Nacional - AVS	2:1
19.11.23	AVS - Nacional	0:1

Upcoming Matches