Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 21

Date: 8 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Nacional		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.4	4.5	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.4
	1.82	3.45	4.25	Watch
	1.88	3.58	4.7
	1.82	3.53	4.53	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.4	Watch
	1.88	3.59	4.52	Watch
	1.78	3.4	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.47)	3.44 ↑ (3.37)	4.38 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
50.9%

Draw
27.5%

Casa Pia
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

28.1%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

28.4%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional's performance.

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Casa Pia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Casa Pia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	7.1%	0%

Nacional - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 12 - 92.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 77.8% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Nacional (1.50) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Nacional (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nacional will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional (votes: 11 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kaique Pereira (G) 16. Nunez A. 34. Leo Santos 38. Ze Vitor 5. Jose Gomes 28. Liziero 6. Matheus Dias 8. Baeza M. 27. Gabriel Veron 9. Ramirez J. (C) 11. Paulinho Boia	1. Sequeira P. (G) 18. Geraldes A. (C) 4. Goulart J. 3. Kaly 72. Larrazabal G. 80. Ofori L. 8. Brito R. 5. Conte A. 29. Livolant J. 90. Cassiano 21. Morais T.
Substitutes
10. Daniel Junior 88. Deivison 33. Goncalves C. 19. Joao L. 15. Labidi C. 50. Medeiros de Freitas K. V. (G) 99. Pablo Ruan 26. Silva J. 7. Witi	27. Kaique Rocha 95. Mandic I. (G) 11. Marques J. 99. Mendes C. 24. Mohamed I. 13. Osundina K. 19. Prieto K. 10. Rocha Livramento D. 75. Rosas P.
Coaches
Margarido T.	Pacheco A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Morais T. ↓, Marques J. ↑,
64', Kaly 🟨,
71', Livolant J. ↓, Osundina K. ↑,
71', Brito R. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
77', Mohamed I. 🟨,
80', Cassiano ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
83', Leo Santos 🟨,
84', Gabriel Veron ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
84', Jose Gomes ↓, Witi ↑,
85', Baeza M. 🟨,
86', Geraldes A. 🟨,
89', Baeza M. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
90+2', Paulinho Boia ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3.

Nacional has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Casa Pia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Nacional is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I. (Injury) Soares F. (Injury) Ulisses (Injury)

There will not play in Casa Pia: Fonte J. (Injury) Kaique Rocha (Injury) Kiki (Knee Injury) Sousa D. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Nacional: Aurelio J. (Inactive) Vallier L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Perez S. (Inactive) Tchamba D. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7:15	-8	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	3:17	-14	4

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 38.29%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
01.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Nacional - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
17.01.26	Gil Vicente - Nacional	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Nacional - Santa Clara	3:3 ✺
02.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLTL
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
02.02.26	Casa Pia - Porto	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	Casa Pia - AVS	3:3 ✺
16.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Casa Pia	3:0 ✺
04.01.26	Rio Ave - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
28.12.25	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.5 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
30.08.25	Casa Pia - Nacional	0:2
16.03.25	Nacional - Casa Pia	3:1
25.10.24	Casa Pia - Nacional	1:0
Taça de Portugal
25.11.23	Nacional - Casa Pia	1:0 penalties
Portuguese League Cup
28.09.23	Casa Pia - Nacional	2:1
Taça de Portugal
09.02.23	Casa Pia - Nacional	2:5 ET
Portuguese Liga 2
19.02.22	Casa Pia - Nacional	1:0

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