Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 12

Date: 2 December 2023, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV+


	Nacional		Paços de Ferreira

	1	X	2
	2	3.6	3.5
	2	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.5
	2.08	3.65	3.59
	2.08	3.65	3.59
	2	3.3	3.1
	2.04	3.44	3.36	Watch
	2.03	3.35	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.38)	3.46 ↑ (3.2)	3.39 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
45.7%

Draw
26.9%

Paços de Ferreira
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

28%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

27.6%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional's performance.

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paços de Ferreira might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paços de Ferreira could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Nacional - Paços de Ferreira Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Lucas Franca (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 4. Paulo Vitor 40. Ulisses 55. Sousa A. 10. Esteves L. 8. Danilovic V. 28. Carlos Daniel 77. Gustavo 9. Ramirez J. 11. Witi	28. Marafona (G) 50. Jojo 4. Ganchas P. 2. Icaro 5. Antunes V. (C) 10. Djalo M. 17. Paulo M. 29. Gorby 30. Costinha 19. Fonte R. 9. Ze Uilton
Substitutes
99. Dudu 1. Encarnacao R. (G) 33. Goncalves C. 5. Jose Gomes 20. Jota Garces 7. Macedo R. 21. Marakis S. 27. Raimar 18. Sousa A.	20. Bastos L. 77. Cipenga B. 99. Joao Celeri 22. Luiz Carlos 21. Neves A. 24. Oliveira J. (G) 26. Robson Reis 14. Rocha S. 8. Welton
Coaches
Margarido T.	Silva R.

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nacional won 0.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Nacional will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Nacional won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 27-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Taça de Portugal
25.11.23	Nacional - Casa Pia	1:0 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
19.11.23	AVS - Nacional	0:1 ✺
11.11.23	Nacional - Leiria	2:0 ✺
04.11.23	Nacional - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
29.10.23	Académico de Viseu - Nacional	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 WWWTT
- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
18.11.23	Paços de Ferreira - Santa Clara	0:2 ✺
11.11.23	Oliveirense - Paços de Ferreira	0:0 ✺
06.11.23	Paços de Ferreira - Académico de Viseu	1:0 ✺
28.10.23	Torreense - Paços de Ferreira	1:2 ✺
07.10.23	Paços de Ferreira - Vilaverdense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
05.03.21	Paços de Ferreira - Nacional	2:1
24.10.20	Nacional - Paços de Ferreira	1:1
13.03.17	Nacional - Paços de Ferreira	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
25.10.16	Paços de Ferreira - Nacional	4:0
Liga Portugal
21.10.16	Paços de Ferreira - Nacional	1:1
26.02.16	Nacional - Paços de Ferreira	3:0
03.10.15	Paços de Ferreira - Nacional	3:1

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