Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 22 January 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tupras Stadium (Istanbul) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Weinberger J. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport App
Albania	16:30	SuperSport 2
Argentina	12:30	ESPN 2
Armenia	19:30	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	02:30	Stan Sport
Austria	16:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 2
Azerbaijan	19:30	CBC Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	16:30	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Bulgaria	17:30	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	10:30	DAZN Canada
China	23:30	QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	10:30	ESPN
Croatia	16:30	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	16:30	Sport 1
Denmark	16:30	Disney+
Finland	17:30	Viaplay
France	16:30	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	19:30	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Sport 1
Germany	16:30	RTL+
Greece	17:30	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hong Kong	23:30	beIN Sports 3
Iceland	15:30	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
Indonesia	22:30	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	17:30	Sport 2
Italy	16:30	NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport Calcio
Kazakhstan	21:30	Qazsport
Laos	22:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	23:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	16:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	09:30	ESPN 2
Montenegro	16:30	Arena Premium 1
Myanmar	22:00	Canal+ Myanmar
New Zealand	04:30	DAZN New Zealand
North Central America	—	SportsMax 2 Caribbean
North Macedonia	16:30	Arena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
Norway	16:30	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Philippines	23:30	beIN Connect
Poland	16:30	Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	15:30	DAZN 1
Romania	17:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	18:30	Okko Sport
Serbia	16:30	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	23:30	beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovenia	16:30	SportKlub 1
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	00:30	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	16:30	M+ Liga de Campeones
Sweden	16:30	Disney+
Switzerland	16:30	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	22:30	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	18:30	TRT 1
Ukraine	17:30	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Kingdom	15:30	Discovery+ UK, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports 4
Usa	10:30	Paramount+
Venezuela	11:30	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	22:30	ON Plus
International	15:30	Disney+, Prima+ app, SportsMax App


	Beşiktaş		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.7	1.91
	3.75	3.6	1.95
	3.75	3.6	2
	4.05	3.59	1.97
	3.82	3.52	1.98	Watch
	3.5	3.7	2
	3.54	3.96	2.08
	3.8	3.65	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↓ (4.93)	3.67 ↓ (4.09)	1.99 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Beşiktaş
25.5%

Draw
26.2%

Athletic Bilbao
48.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

19.4%

23.4%

57.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.6%

22.4%

59.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Beşiktaş has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Beşiktaş's performance.

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Beşiktaş than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Beşiktaş that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Bilbao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.1%	8.8%	49.1%

Beşiktaş - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Users Predictions: 55 users predict this event. Beşiktaş will win (votes: 23 - 41.8%). Athletic will win (votes: 27 - 49.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 35.9% – 62.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Gunok M. (C) 2. Svensson J. 53. Topcu E. 14. Uduokhai F. 26. Masuaku A. 83. Fernandes G. 6. Al Musrati 7. Rashica M. 27. Rafa Silva 23. Muci E. 17. Immobile C.	13. Agirrezabala J. (G) 18. de Marcos O. (C) 14. Nunez U. 4. Paredes A. 17. Berchiche Y. 24. Prados Diaz B. 23. Jauregizar M. 7. Berenguer A. 20. Gomez U. 10. Williams N. 12. Guruzeta G.
Substitutes
44. Ay F. K. 94. Baytekin G. (G) 4. Bulut O. 30. Destanoglu E. (G) 91. Hekimoglu M. 18. Joao Mario 77. Keles C. 9. Kilicsoy S. 73. Ndour C. 71. Onana J. 8. Ucan S. 22. Zaynutdinov B.	5. Alvarez Y. 28. Canales P. 11. Djalo A. 2. Gorosabel A. 19. Javier Marton 15. Lekue I. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 22. Serrano N. 1. Simon U. (G) 6. Vesga M. 3. Vivian D. 9. Williams I.
Coaches
Solskjaer O. G.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Rashica M. ⚽, Rafa Silva (A),
37', Immobile C. 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Gomez U. ⚽, Prados Diaz B. (A),
45+1', Masuaku A. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
60', 2 - 1, Rashica M. ⚽, Rafa Silva (A),
61', Prados Diaz B. ↓, Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↑,
61', Williams N. ↓, Williams I. ↑,
67', Rashica M. 🟨,
67', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
69', Masuaku A. ↓, Zaynutdinov B. ↑,
69', Immobile C. ↓, Kilicsoy S. ↑,
77', 3 - 1, Rafa Silva ⚽,
79', Gomez U. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
79', Berenguer A. ↓, Djalo A. ↑,
79', Rashica M. ↓, Joao Mario ↑,
87', Rafa Silva ↓, Ndour C. ↑,
87', Muci E. ↓, Bulut O. ↑,
90+2', 4 - 1, Joao Mario (Pen),

Preview

Beşiktaş is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Athletic is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Athletic could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Athletic is a favorite.

There will not play in Beşiktaş: Sanuc T. T. (Hamstring Injury) Terzi E. (Ankle Injury) Uysal N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Beşiktaş: Gabriel Paulista (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Athletic: Sancet O. (Ankle Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Beşiktaş
Turkish Super League
18.01.25	Beşiktaş - Samsunspor	0:0 ✺
11.01.25	Beşiktaş - Bodrumspor	2:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
07.01.25	Sivasspor - Beşiktaş	0:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
03.01.25	Çaykur Rizespor - Beşiktaş	1:1 ✺
21.12.24	Beşiktaş - Alanyaspor	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWWTT
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
19.01.25	Celta de Vigo - Athletic Bilbao	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.01.25	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	2:3 ✺
Spanish Supercopa
08.01.25	Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.01.25	UD Logroñés - Athletic Bilbao	0:1 penalties ✺
Spanish LaLiga
21.12.24	Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLLWW

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