Match Info

LaLiga - Round 18

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Sadar (Pamplona)

Referee: Munuera J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Osasuna		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.88	2.6	Watch
	3.05	2.98	2.58	Watch
	3.23	3	2.58
	2.99	2.99	2.65	Watch
	3	2.8	2.5
	3.17	2.94	2.66	Watch
	2.9	3	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↓ (3.13)	2.94 ↑ (2.88)	2.6 (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osasuna
31.1%

Draw
32.4%

Athletic Bilbao
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

33%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

32.6%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osasuna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

The chances for Athletic Bilbao have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48%	26%	26%

Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Osasuna will win (votes: 24 - 48%). Athletic will win (votes: 13 - 26%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 26%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Osasuna: 34.2% – 61.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Osasuna (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Athletic (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Athletic (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Osasuna (votes: 6 - 50%). Athletic (votes: 3 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrera S. (C) 19. Rosier V. 24. Catena A. 5. Herrando J. 20. Galan J. 7. Moncayola J. 6. Torro L. 14. Garcia R. 10. Oroz A. 21. Munoz V. 17. Budimir A.	1. Simon U. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 3. Vivian D. 4. Paredes A. 19. Boiro A. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 18. Jauregizar M. 9. Williams I. (C) 8. Sancet O. 10. Williams N. 11. Guruzeta G.
Substitutes
41. Arguibide I. 11. Barja K. 18. Becker S. 3. Cruz J. 13. Fernandez A. (G) 9. Garcia R. 16. Gomez M. 8. Munoz I. 29. Osambela A. 31. Stamatakis D. (G)	12. Areso J. 7. Berenguer A. 20. Gomez U. 25. Izeta 15. Lekue I. 47. Monreal I. 23. Navarro R. 27. Padilla A. (G) 30. Rego A. 44. Sanchez S. 22. Serrano N. 6. Vesga M.
Coaches
Lisci A.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Paredes A. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Garcia R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Boiro A. 🟨,
60', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Rego A. ↑,
60', Williams I. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
60', Sancet O. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
67', Moncayola J. 🟨,
69', Gorosabel A. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Guruzeta G. ⚽, Navarro R. (A),
73', Berenguer A. 🟨,
73', Catena A. 🟨,
76', Garcia R. ↓, Barja K. ↑,
76', Budimir A. ↓, Garcia R. ↑,
77', Herrando J. 🟨,
83', Oroz A. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
86', Rosier V. ↓, Arguibide I. ↑,
90', Williams N. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 2.

Osasuna is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Athletic's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Osasuna: Benito I. (Knee Injury) Boyomo F. (International duty) Bretones A. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Berchiche Y. (Hamstring Injury) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Laporte A. (Muscle Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:23. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Osasuna won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.1:1.2).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Ath Bilbao: 0.47% Osasuna: 0.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7:6	1	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6:13	-7	8

Last Results with these Odds

Osasuna - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 30.39%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Osasuna
Spanish LaLiga
20.12.25	Osasuna - Deportivo Alavés	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.12.25	Huesca - Osasuna	2:4 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga
13.12.25	Barcelona - Osasuna	2:0 ✺
08.12.25	Osasuna - Levante	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.12.25	Ebro - Osasuna	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLWW
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
22.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
18.12.25	Ourense CF - Athletic Bilbao	0:1 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.12.25	Celta de Vigo - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Paris Saint-Germain	0:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
06.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
04.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	0:1
Spanish LaLiga
30.03.25	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	0:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.01.25	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	2:3
Spanish LaLiga
21.12.24	Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao	1:2
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	2:1
Spanish LaLiga
11.05.24	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	2:2
19.08.23	Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao	0:2

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