Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 16

Date: 7 January 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Rio Ave (Vila do Conde)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Rio Ave		Portimonense

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.77	3.5	4.4	Watch
	1.72	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.77	3.85	4.93
	1.76	3.85	4.94
	1.7	3.6	4.33	Watch
	1.78	3.74	4.52	Watch
	1.74	3.8	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.91)	3.73 ↑ (3.53)	4.67 ↑ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Ave
54.3%

Draw
25.4%

Portimonense
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

26.5%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

24%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Ave has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rio Ave's performance.

Portimonense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rio Ave that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Portimonense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.1%	4.7%	16.3%

Rio Ave - Portimonense Predictions

Users Predictions: Rio Ave will win (34 of 43 users predict this - 79.07%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.91% – 91.23%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Jhonatan (G) 23. Josue Sa 33. Santos A. 3. Nobrega M. 20. Costinha 6. Guga (C) 10. Amine 77. Fabio Ronaldo 14. Joca 9. Ruiz L. 22. Boateng E.	12. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 43. Tornich 44. Pedrao (C) 22. Relvas F. 27. Guga 25. Lucas Ventura 11. Carlinhos 13. Dener 18. Costa G. 28. Luan 77. Varela H.
Substitutes
7. Hernani 13. Lomboto J. 82. Magrao (G) 75. Namora N. 42. Pantalon R. 17. Ukra 11. Ventura B. 4. William P. 70. Ze Manuel	76. Alcobia R. 85. Cassama M. 20. Estrela P. 33. Igor Formiga 7. Jasper S. 32. Nakamura K. (G) 14. Seck M. 6. Sousa R. 99. Zinho
Coaches
Freire L.	Paulo Sergio

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rio Ave won 3.

Recent matches Rio Ave is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Portimonense has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Rio Ave could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Rio Ave is a favorite.

There will not play in Rio Ave: Graca J. (Yellow Cards)

Last 14 head-to-head matches Rio Ave won 8 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 20-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Rio Ave won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
23.12.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Rio Ave	1:0 ✺
16.12.23	Rio Ave - Vizela	1:1 ✺
10.12.23	Arouca - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
02.12.23	Rio Ave - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
12.11.23	Gil Vicente - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LTTTT
- Portimonense SC
Liga Portugal
30.12.23	Portimonense - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
17.12.23	Moreirense - Portimonense	5:2 ✺
09.12.23	Portimonense - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
02.12.23	Casa Pia - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
25.11.23	Portimonense - Braga	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
08.04.23	Portimonense - Rio Ave	2:2
24.10.22	Rio Ave - Portimonense	1:0
01.05.21	Portimonense - Rio Ave	0:0
08.01.21	Rio Ave - Portimonense	3:0
09.07.20	Rio Ave - Portimonense	2:1
13.12.19	Portimonense - Rio Ave	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
05.10.19	Portimonense - Rio Ave	1:1

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