Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 33

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI (Porto)

Referee: Pereira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	RTP Africa, RTP Africa, RTP Africa, ZAP
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Lithuania	Sport 1
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	RTPi, RTP International, Sport TV1
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	TV Start
Saudi-arabia	Shahid VIP
Serbia	Arena Sport 2, SportKlub 1
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Triller TV+


	Boavista		Porto

	1	X	2
	7.5	4.5	1.4	Watch
	7	4.75	1.41
	7.5	5	1.38	Watch
	7.6	5.16	1.4
	7.36	4.89	1.41	Watch
	7	4.4	1.4	Watch
	7.6	4.85	1.4	Watch
	7.5	5	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.38 ↓ (9.25)	4.82 ↓ (5.25)	1.4 ↑ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boavista
12.8%

Draw
19.6%

Porto
67.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.3%

18.1%

71.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10%

17.6%

73.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boavista has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boavista than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Porto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.9%	3.6%	78.6%

Boavista - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Boavista will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Porto will win (votes: 21 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 62.1% – 93.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Boavista (votes: 4 - 40%). Porto (votes: 6 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Boavista (5.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Porto (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Porto (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2 - Porto (3.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Boavista (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Boavista (votes: 6 - 40%). Porto (votes: 9 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Vaclik T. (G) 27. Kakay O. 26. Abascal R. 13. Fogning S. 20. Ferreira F. 10. Reisinho M. 24. Perez S. (C) 7. Agra S. 16. Silva J. 21. Diaby A. 9. Bozenik R.	99. Costa D. (C) 97. Pedro J. 24. Perez N. 5. Marcano I. 23. Joao Mario 22. Varela A. 6. Eustaquio S. 74. Moura F. 10. Vieira F. 9. Samu 86. Mora R.
Substitutes
11. Ariyibi G. 71. Barros J. 2. Camara I. 1. Cesar (G) 15. Gomes P. 14. Kone M. 5. Lystsov V. 8. van Ginkel M. 19. Vitoria S.	14. Claudio Ramos (G) 19. Danny Namaso 52. Fernandes M. 20. Franco A. 27. Gul D. 4. Otavio 11. Pepê 25. Perez T. 7. William Gomes
Coaches
Paiva R.	Anselmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', Kakay O. 🟨,
9', Perez N. 🟨,
20', 0 - 1, Mora R. ⚽, Moura F. (A),
25', 0 - 2, Marcano I. ⚽, Perez N. (A),
34', 1 - 2, Reisinho M. (Pen),
45+7', Anselmi M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', Mora R. ↓, Pepê ↑,
79', Joao Mario ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
79', Eustaquio S. ↓, Perez T. ↑,
79', Agra S. ↓, Ariyibi G. ↑,
81', Perez N. 🟨,
84', Samu ↓, Otavio ↑,
84', Vieira F. ↓, Danny Namaso ↑,
86', Ferreira F. ↓, van Ginkel M. ↑,
90+1', Reisinho M. 🟨,
90+4', Fogning S. 🟨,
90+5', Kakay O. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boavista won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Porto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Porto is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Boavista: Joao Goncalves (Knee Injury) Kurzawa L. (Inactive) Llorente D. (Inactive) Machado T. (Inactive) Ribeiro M. (Knee Injury) Vukotic I. (Inactive)

There will not play in Porto: Costa D. (Buttock Injury) Grujic M. (Heel Injury) Sousa V. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Boavista: Silva T. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Boavista won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:19. (average 0.8:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Boavista won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boavista FC
Liga Portugal
05.05.25	AVS - Boavista	1:2 ✺
27.04.25	Boavista - Sporting Lisbon	0:5 ✺
18.04.25	Farense - Boavista	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Boavista - Nacional	0:1 ✺
07.04.25	Rio Ave - Boavista	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 WLWLW
- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
02.05.25	Porto - Moreirense	3:1 ✺
26.04.25	Estrela da Amadora - Porto	2:0 ✺
18.04.25	Porto - Famalicão	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Casa Pia - Porto	0:1 ✺
06.04.25	Porto - Benfica	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
28.12.24	Porto - Boavista	4:0
12.05.24	Porto - Boavista	2:1
05.01.24	Boavista - Porto	1:1
30.04.23	Porto - Boavista	1:0
12.11.22	Boavista - Porto	1:4
20.03.22	Boavista - Porto	0:1
30.10.21	Porto - Boavista	4:1

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