Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Hernando Siles (La Paz)

Referee: Lopez D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Germany	Sportdigital1+
Greece	ERT Sports 2
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 4
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
World	Onefootball


	Bolívar		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.3
	1.98	3.35	3.7	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.84
	1.88	3.6	4.14
	2.05	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.17	3.31	3.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.05)	3.38 ↓ (3.52)	3.65 ↑ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolívar
46.2%

Draw
27.9%

Fluminense
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

26.6%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

25.6%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolívar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolívar than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	9.1%	0%

Bolívar - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: Bolívar will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lampe C. (G) 8. Paz L. 3. Arreaga X. 27. Gariglio I. 4. Sagredo J. 14. Robson Matheus 23. Justiniano L. (C) 80. Melgar C. A. 11. Oyola B. 77. Romero D. 19. Garcia J.	1. Fabio (C) 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 35. Hercules 5. Bernal F. 17. Canobbio A. 11. Savarino J. 90. Serna K. 19. Castillo R.
Substitutes
9. Cauteruccio M. 18. Chavez Cruz L. L. 5. Echeverria S. 35. Freita E. 33. Mena F. 13. Mendez D. (G) 17. Pato Rodriguez 26. Saavedra E. 2. Sagredo J. 20. Sejas C. 6. Vaca Moreno E. 7. Velasquez J.	25. Alisson 13. Guilherme Arana 21. Igor Rabello 3. Jemmes 9. John Kennedy 46. Julio Fidelis 29. Millan J. 94. Otavio 28. Riquelme Felipe 2. Samuel Xavier 7. Soteldo Y. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)
Coaches
Robatto F.	Zubeldia L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Robson Matheus ⚽, Sagredo J. (A),
21', Castillo R. 🟨,
29', Bernal F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Bernal F. 🟨,
50', Zubeldia L. 🟨,
57', Garcia J. 🟨,
57', Garcia J. ↓, Pato Rodriguez ↑,
59', Serna K. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
59', Castillo R. ↓, John Kennedy ↑,
59', Savarino J. ↓, Alisson ↑,
61', 2 - 0, Robson Matheus ⚽, Pato Rodriguez (A),
72', Melgar C. A. ↓, Saavedra E. ↑,
72', Oyola B. ↓, Velasquez J. ↑,
74', Justiniano L. 🟨,
79', Robson Matheus ↓, Vaca Moreno E. ↑,
80', Canobbio A. ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Fluminense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bolívar could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Fluminense: Acosta L. (Knee Injury) Cano G. (Muscle Injury) Matheus Reis (Knee Injury) Nonato (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Fluminense: Guga (Injury) Martinelli (Hamstring Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Fluminense: 9.38%

Last Results with these Odds

Fluminense - the odds 3.39 are the expected chance of winning is 27.61%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolívar La Paz
Bolivian Division Profesional
26.04.26	Bolívar - Real Tomayapo	6:0 ✺
21.04.26	Bolívar - Independiente Petroleros	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Bolívar - Deportivo La Guaira	1:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
11.04.26	ABB - Bolívar	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.04.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Bolívar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLTWL
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Fluminense - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
23.04.26	Operário Ferroviario - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Santos - Fluminense	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Fluminense - Independiente Rivadavia	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.04.26	Fluminense - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WTWLL

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