Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 24 April 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Hernando Siles (La Paz)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Peru	ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	beIN Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+


	Bolívar		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.25	2.8	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.8
	2.48	3.2	2.88	Watch
	2.62	3.35	2.86
	2.57	3.28	2.81	Watch
	1.91	3.4	3.75	Watch
	2.59	3.24	2.79	Watch
	2.48	3.2	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (1.99)	3.29 ↓ (3.38)	3.07 ↓ (3.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolívar
39.8%

Draw
29.1%

Palmeiras
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.7%

28.1%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

30.4%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolívar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bolívar's form might have worsened.

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolívar than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bolívar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palmeiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52%	16%	32%

Bolívar - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Bolívar will win (votes: 13 - 52%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 8 - 32%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bolívar: 32.4% – 71.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolívar (votes: 3 - 50%). Palmeiras (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Palmeiras (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Palmeiras (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Bolívar (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Bolívar (1.84) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Bolívar (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Palmeiras (votes: 6 - 54.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Lanzillotta F. (G) 22. Rocha Y. 5. Quinteros J. 2. Sagredo J. 6. Vaca Moreno E. 14. Robson Matheus 23. Justiniano L. 80. Melgar C. A. (C) 11. Vaca R. 17. Pato Rodriguez 90. Fabio Gomes	21. Weverton (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 6. Vanderlan 3. Bruno Fuchs 5. Moreno A. 32. Martinez E. 22. Piquerez J. 41. Estevao 17. Torres F. 42. Flaco Lopez
Substitutes
12. Cordano R. (G) 7. Mena F. 28. Mendez B. 8. Paz L. 35. Rivero E. 77. Romero D. 26. Saavedra E. 4. Sagredo J. 27. Vaca H. 21. Velasquez J. 29. Velasquez J.	40. Allan 43. Benedetti 7. Felipe Anderson 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 1. Mateus Oliveira (G) 18. Mauricio 34. Naves 10. Paulinho 39. Thalys
Coaches
Robatto F.	Abel Ferreira

Preview

Recent matches Bolívar is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Palmeiras is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Bolívar could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Bolívar will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bolívar: Lampe C. (Inactive) Torren M. (Injury)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Knee Injury) Mayke (Hamstring Injury) Murilo (Hamstring Injury) Raphael Veiga (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Palmeiras: Marcos Rocha (Calf Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Bolívar won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:12 (average 1:3).

Including matches at home between the teams Bolívar won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:3 (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolívar La Paz
Bolivian Division Profesional
20.04.25	Guabirá - Bolívar	2:4 ✺
12.04.25	Bolívar - Jorge Wilstermann	5:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.25	Bolívar - Sporting Cristal	3:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
05.04.25	Real Tomayapo - Bolívar	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
01.04.25	Cerro Porteño - Bolívar	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWLL
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.25	Fortaleza - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
16.04.25	Internacional RS - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
12.04.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.25	Palmeiras - Cerro Porteño	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.04.25	Sport Recife - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
29.06.23	Palmeiras - Bolívar	4:0
05.04.23	Bolívar - Palmeiras	3:1
30.09.20	Palmeiras - Bolívar	5:0
16.09.20	Bolívar - Palmeiras	1:2

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