Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 2

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, PlayPlus, Premiere, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Sport Recife		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	3	2.9	2.6	Watch
	3	3	2.55
	3.3	3.2	2.25
	3.44	3.23	2.22	Watch
	5	3.5	1.67
	3.45	3.16	2.24	Watch
	3.3	3.2	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↓ (5.98)	3.17 ↓ (3.93)	2.25 ↑ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
27.4%

Draw
30.2%

Palmeiras
42.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.8%

24.1%

60.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.7%

24%

60.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sport Recife's performance.

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Palmeiras might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sport Recife that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+17.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Palmeiras could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	10%	60%

Sport Recife - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Recife (1.75) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Recife (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Recife (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Caique Franca (G) 32. Hereda 6. Silva J. 44. Chico 16. Igor Carius 14. Rivera C. 37. Du Queiroz 27. Oliveira S. 10. Lucas Lima (C) 30. Chrystian Barletta 92. Pablo	21. Weverton (G) 3. Bruno Fuchs 26. Murilo (C) 13. Micael 4. Giay A. 32. Martinez E. 30. Lucas Evangelista 7. Felipe Anderson 6. Vanderlan 17. Torres F. 42. Flaco Lopez
Substitutes
38. Arthur Sousa 17. Carlos Alberto 8. Dominguez F. 11. Gustavo Maia 19. Hyoran 77. Lobato L. 3. Lucas Cunha 33. Matheus Alexandre 59. Ortiz C. 13. Renzo 91. Romarinho 12. Thiago Couto (G)	40. Allan 43. Benedetti 41. Estevao 15. Gomez G. 31. Luighi 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 5. Moreno A. 34. Naves 22. Piquerez J. 23. Raphael Veiga 39. Thalys 9. Vitor Roque
Coaches
Miguel P.	Ferreira A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Torres F. 🟨,
20', Murilo 🟨,
21', Rivera C. 🟨,
30', Hereda ↓, Matheus Alexandre ↑,
32', 0 - 1, Flaco Lopez (Pen),
32', Chico 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Chrystian Barletta ⚽, Lucas Lima (A),
43', Bruno Fuchs 🟨,
45', Lucas Lima 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Vanderlan ↓, Piquerez J. ↑,
46', Felipe Anderson ↓, Estevao ↑,
59', Martinez E. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
59', Bruno Fuchs ↓, Raphael Veiga ↑,
73', Lucas Evangelista ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
74', Pablo 🟨,
79', Du Queiroz ↓, Dominguez F. ↑,
79', Pablo ↓, Arthur Sousa ↑,
83', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Carlos Alberto ↑,
83', Lucas Lima ↓, Lobato L. ↑,
84', Oliveira S. 🟨,
89', 1 - 2, Raphael Veiga (Pen),
90+4', Vitor Roque 🟨,
90+7', Matheus Alexandre 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Recife won 0.

Recife is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Palmeiras is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recife could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Palmeiras is a favorite.

There will not play in Recife: Atencio R. (Toe Injury) Dalbert (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues (Injury) Marcos Rocha (Hamstring Injury) Paulinho (Inactive) Pedro Felipe (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Recife: Igor Carius (Injury)

There are questionable in Palmeiras: Mauricio (Injury)

Last 18 head-to-head matches Recife won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 22:30 (average 1.2:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Recife won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8:12 (average 0.9:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
02.04.25	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	2:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.03.25	São Paulo - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.03.25	Sport Recife - Altos	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
22.03.25	Retrô Brasil - Sport Recife	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.03.25	Vitória Salvador - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LTLWL
- Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores
03.04.25	Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
30.03.25	Palmeiras - Botafogo RJ	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
27.03.25	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
16.03.25	Palmeiras - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
10.03.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
25.10.21	Palmeiras - Sport Recife	2:1
04.07.21	Sport Recife - Palmeiras	0:1
09.01.21	Sport Recife - Palmeiras	0:1
13.09.20	Palmeiras - Sport Recife	2:2
23.09.18	Sport Recife - Palmeiras	0:1
26.05.18	Palmeiras - Sport Recife	2:3
16.11.17	Palmeiras - Sport Recife	5:1

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