Match Info

Super League - Round 23

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion Batakan (Balikpapan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Indonesia	Vidio


	Borneo Samarinda		Arema

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.4	3.6
	1.7	3.7	3.95
	1.69	4.27	4.36
	1.84	3.88	3.73	Watch
	1.67	3.8	4
	1.72	3.8	3.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.81)	3.81 ↑ (3.77)	3.92 ↑ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borneo Samarinda
52.7%

Draw
24%

Arema
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

24.6%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

25.2%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borneo Samarinda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Arema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borneo Samarinda than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arema than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	6.7%	0%

Borneo Samarinda - Arema Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Borneo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Borneo Samarinda will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Argawinata N. (C) 54. Buffon A. 22. Nduwarugira C. 16. Teguh K. 23. Caxambu 50. Enero 14. Anez M. 8. Hirose K. 20. Villa J. 9. Obieta K. 10. Peralta M.	31. Lucas Frigeri (G) 2. Fahmi R. 66. Yama H. 5. Walisson Maia 4. Guntara L. 25. Matheus Blade 6. Guevara J. (C) 7. Gabriel Silva 8. Fikri A. 94. Dalberto 9. Joel Vinicius
Substitutes
52. Ahmad Agung 7. Astina M. 5. Cleylton 63. Fasya D. (G) 66. Hardiansyah D. 3. Idrus A. 77. Khanafi M. 88. Kuswardani D. 24. Michiels D. 99. Sihran M. 30. Trisna S. (G) 6. Zikrak I.	13. Balinsa S. G. 87. Farisi A. 77. Gustavo Franca 14. Hariono J. 96. Iksan M. 17. Mardiyanto D. 32. Pablo Oliveira 18. Pandenuwu G. (G) 41. Santoso D. 72. Setiawan B. 27. Setiawan D. 11. Tuharea S.
Coaches
Lefundes F.	Goncalves M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Caxambu ⚽, Anez M. (A),
26', 2 - 0, Villa J. ⚽,
36', Guntara L. 🟨,
42', 3 - 0, Villa J. ⚽, Peralta M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Guevara J. ↓, Hariono J. ↑,
46', Guntara L. ↓, Farisi A. ↑,
46', Fikri A. ↓, Gustavo Franca ↑,
46', Obieta K. ↓, Cleylton ↑,
46', Buffon A. ↓, Khanafi M. ↑,
62', Walisson Maia ↓, Pablo Oliveira ↑,
64', 3 - 1, Dalberto ⚽, Gustavo Franca (A),
79', Khanafi M. 🟨,
82', Khanafi M. ↓, Sihran M. ↑,
90', Villa J. ↓, Astina M. ↑,
90+3', Matheus Blade 🟨,
90+4', Nduwarugira C. 🟨,
90+7', Peralta M. ↓, Zikrak I. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Challenge League (Qualification: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borneo won 3.

Recent performances by Borneo have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arema is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Borneo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Borneo has had a series of away games.

In this match, Borneo is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Borneo won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 32:21. (average 1.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Borneo won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:12. (average 1.8:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Borneo	4	2	0	2	3:4	-1	6
7	Arema FC	3	1	2	0	8:4	4	5

Last Results with these Odds

Borneo Samarinda - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 51.24%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borneo Samarinda
Indonesian Super League
22.02.26	Dewa United - Borneo Samarinda	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Bhayangkara - Borneo Samarinda	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Borneo Samarinda - PSIM Yogyakarta	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	Persis Solo - Borneo Samarinda	0:1 ✺
09.01.26	Persita Tangerang - Borneo Samarinda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWWWL
- Arema FC
Indonesian Super League
21.02.26	Madura United - Arema	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	Arema - Semen Padang	3:0 ✺
08.02.26	Persija Jakarta - Arema	0:2 ✺
02.02.26	Arema - Persijap Jepara	1:0 ✺
26.01.26	Dewa United - Arema	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Indonesian Super League
26.10.25	Arema - Borneo Samarinda	1:3
19.01.25	Borneo Samarinda - Arema	3:1
17.08.24	Arema - Borneo Samarinda	0:2
Indonesian President Cup
04.08.24	Borneo Samarinda - Arema	1:2 penalties
Indonesian Super League
21.04.24	Borneo Samarinda - Arema	1:2
06.10.23	Arema - Borneo Samarinda	0:1
24.03.23	Arema - Borneo Samarinda	0:0

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