Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 6

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Borussia-Park (Mönchengladbach)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

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	Borussia Mönchengladbach		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.25	2.63	Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.9
	2.78	3.35	2.58	Watch
	2.75	3.4	2.71
	3.12	3.14	2.35	Watch
				Watch
	2.78	3.34	2.7	Watch
	2.33	3.5	2.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.42)	3.35 ↓ (3.66)	2.69 ↓ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Borussia Mönchengladbach
35.8%

Draw
28.6%

Freiburg
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

26.1%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.5%

26.1%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Borussia Mönchengladbach has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Mönchengladbach than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.7%	21.9%	34.4%

Borussia Mönchengladbach - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Borussia M will win (votes: 14 - 43.8%). Freiburg will win (votes: 11 - 34.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 21.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia M: 26.6% – 61%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia M (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Freiburg (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Borussia M (4.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Borussia M (1.48) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Borussia M (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Borussia M (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Freiburg (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Nicolas M. (G) 29. Scally J. 30. Elvedi N. 4. Diks K. 20. Netz L. 27. Reitz R. (C) 16. Sander P. 6. Engelhardt Y. 17. Castrop J. 15. Tabakovic H. 10. Neuhaus F.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 30. Gunter C. 8. Eggestein M. 6. Osterhage P. 19. Beste J. 9. Holer L. 32. Grifo V. (C) 20. Adamu J.
Substitutes
22. Fraulo O. 5. Friedrich M. 34. Herrmann C. 18. Machino S. 1. Omlin J. (G) 28. Ranos G. 7. Stoger K. 26. Ullrich L. 40. Urbich J.	18. Dinkci E. 27. Hofler N. 5. Jung A. 33. Makengo J. 44. Manzambi J. 31. Matanovic I. 21. Muller F. (G) 37. Rosenfelder M. 7. Scherhant D.
Coaches
Polanski E.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Holer L. ↓, Manzambi J. ↑,
54', Osterhage P. 🟨,
59', Elvedi N. 🟨,
63', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
64', Sander P. 🟨,
69', Tabakovic H. ↓, Urbich J. ↑,
69', Reitz R. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
79', Adamu J. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
79', Beste J. ↓, Dinkci E. ↑,
81', Sander P. ↓, Machino S. ↑,
81', Neuhaus F. ↓, Ranos G. ↑,
82', Scally J. 🟨,
90', Schuster J. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia M won 0.

Borussia M is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Freiburg is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Freiburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Borussia M: Hack R. (Knee Injury) Honorat F. (Muscle Injury) Kleindienst T. (Knee Injury) Ngoumou N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Reyna G. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Borussia M won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 29:37. (average 1.5:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Borussia M won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:18. (average 1.6:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Borussia Mönchengladbach
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Eintracht Frankfurt	4:6 ✺
21.09.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Werder Bremen	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
05.09.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Schalke 04	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
30.08.25	Stuttgart - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LTLWL
- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
02.10.25	Bologna - Freiburg	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
28.09.25	Freiburg - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.09.25	Freiburg - Basel	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.09.25	Werder Bremen - Freiburg	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Freiburg - Stuttgart	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
12.04.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Freiburg	1:2
30.11.24	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:1
30.03.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Freiburg	0:3
04.11.23	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:3
04.03.23	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Freiburg	0:0
11.09.22	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0
23.04.22	Freiburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:3

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