Match Info

Europa League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 2 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara (Bologna)

Referee: Minakovic N. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, Q Arena Asia, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 5
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Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
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Iceland	Viaplay
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Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
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Norway	Viaplay
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Russia	Okko Sport
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Usa	Paramount+
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	Bologna		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.5	4.5
	1.9	3.6	4.3
	1.87	3.58	4.47
	2.18	2.81	4.01	Watch
	1.93	3.63	4.21
	2	3.4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.17)	3.42 ↓ (3.5)	4.18 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bologna
49.1%

Draw
28%

Freiburg
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

27.1%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

27.9%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bologna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bologna's performance.

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Freiburg might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bologna than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Freiburg could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	11.4%	15.9%

Bologna - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Bologna will win (votes: 30 - 71.4%). Freiburg will win (votes: 7 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 11.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bologna: 57.7% – 85.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Bologna (votes: 16 - 69.6%). Freiburg (votes: 5 - 21.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Bologna (1.21) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Bologna (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Freiburg (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Bologna (votes: 19 - 70.4%). Freiburg (votes: 6 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Skorupski L. (G) 2. Holm E. 41. Vitik M. 26. Lucumi J. 22. Lykogiannis C. 8. Freuler R. 19. Ferguson L. (C) 7. Orsolini R. 21. Odgaard J. 28. Cambiaghi N. 9. Castro S.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. 6. Osterhage P. 19. Beste J. 44. Manzambi J. 32. Grifo V. (C) 20. Adamu J.
Substitutes
10. Bernardeschi F. 16. Casale N. 24. Dallinga T. 80. Fabbian G. 14. Heggem T. 33. Miranda J. 6. Moro N. 25. Pessina M. (G) 4. Pobega T. 13. Ravaglia F. (G) 11. Rowe J. 20. Zortea N.	18. Dinkci E. 30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 24. Huth J. (G) 5. Jung A. 31. Matanovic I. 21. Muller F. (G) 43. Ogbus B. 37. Rosenfelder M. 7. Scherhant D. 14. Suzuki Y.
Coaches
Italiano V.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Orsolini R. ⚽, Cambiaghi N. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
48', Makengo J. 🟨,
56', Skorupski L. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Adamu J. (Pen),
65', Lienhart P. 🟨,
66', Castro S. ↓, Dallinga T. ↑,
66', Lykogiannis C. ↓, Miranda J. ↑,
66', Orsolini R. ↓, Bernardeschi F. ↑,
67', Holm E. 🟨,
75', Beste J. ↓, Dinkci E. ↑,
77', Cambiaghi N. ↓, Rowe J. ↑,
80', Makengo J. ↓, Gunter C. ↑,
80', Manzambi J. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
88', Adamu J. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
90+3', Ferguson L. ↓, Fabbian G. ↑,

Preview

Bologna has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Freiburg is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Freiburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bologna is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Bologna: Bonifazi K. (Inactive) Immobile C. (Thigh Injury) Sulemana I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bologna FC
Italian Serie A
28.09.25	Lecce - Bologna	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
25.09.25	Aston Villa - Bologna	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.09.25	Bologna - Genoa	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Milan - Bologna	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Bologna - Como	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLWLW
- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
28.09.25	Freiburg - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.09.25	Freiburg - Basel	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.09.25	Werder Bremen - Freiburg	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Freiburg - Stuttgart	3:1 ✺
31.08.25	Köln - Freiburg	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TWWWL

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