Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Freiburg		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.5	3	Watch
	2.32	3.55	2.98
	2.36	3.55	3.11
	1.59	3.97	5.51	Watch
				Watch
	2.4	3.59	3.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.23)	3.63 ↓ (3.65)	3.55 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
45%

Draw
27.2%

Hoffenheim
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

26.1%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

26.6%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Hoffenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.2%	18.2%	13.6%

Freiburg - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Freiburg: 46.5% – 86.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hoffenheim (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Hoffenheim (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 5. Jung A. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. 6. Osterhage P. 19. Beste J. 18. Dinkci E. 32. Grifo V. (C) 20. Adamu J.	1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 2. Hranac R. 35. Arthur Chaves 13. Bernardo 29. Toure B. 7. Avdullahu L. 18. Burger W. 22. Prass A. 11. Asllani F. 27. Kramaric A.
Substitutes
30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 31. Matanovic I. 21. Muller F. (G) 37. Rosenfelder M. 7. Scherhant D. 14. Suzuki Y. 29. Treu P.	25. Akpoguma K. 9. Bebou I. 10. Damar M. 19. Lemperle T. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G) 6. Promel G. 17. Tohumcu U.
Coaches
Schuster J.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Kubler L. ⚽, Adamu J. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Asllani F. ⚽, Coufal V. (A),
38', Kubler L. ↓, Treu P. ↑,
45+6', Arthur Chaves 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Makengo J. 🟨,
59', Prass A. ↓, Damar M. ↑,
60', Schuster J. 🟨,
64', Adamu J. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
64', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
73', Kramaric A. ↓, Lemperle T. ↑,
73', Avdullahu L. ↓, Promel G. ↑,
80', Osterhage P. 🟨,
84', Beste J. ↓, Rosenfelder M. ↑,
84', Dinkci E. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
85', Burger W. ↓, Tohumcu U. ↑,
85', Asllani F. ↓, Bebou I. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Freiburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Freiburg could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Knee Injury) Manzambi J. (Red Card)

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Gendrey V. (Ankle Injury) Hlozek A. (Foot Injury) Kabak O. (Knee Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 38:29. (average 1.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:16. (average 1.8:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Freiburg - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.81%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
24.09.25	Freiburg - Basel	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.09.25	Werder Bremen - Freiburg	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Freiburg - Stuttgart	3:1 ✺
31.08.25	Köln - Freiburg	4:1 ✺
23.08.25	Freiburg - Augsburg	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWWLL
- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
20.09.25	Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich	1:4 ✺
13.09.25	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	2:4 ✺
30.08.25	Hoffenheim - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	1:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Hansa Rostock - Hoffenheim	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
19.04.25	Freiburg - Hoffenheim	3:2
08.12.24	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	1:1
20.01.24	Freiburg - Hoffenheim	3:2
19.08.23	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	1:2
12.03.23	Freiburg - Hoffenheim	2:1
18.09.22	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	0:0
30.04.22	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	3:4

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