Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	10:30	Disney+
Australia	23:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	15:30	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bulgaria	16:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
China	21:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 3
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Georgia	17:30	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	15:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, Sky Go Germany, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 2
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN Sports 1, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	15:30	Arena 4
Iceland	13:30	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	19:00	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	20:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	16:30	Sport 4
Italy	15:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	15:30	Arena Premium 2
Laos	20:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Maldives	18:30	Medianet
Malta	15:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	07:30	Sky Sport
Mongolia	21:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	02:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	15:30	Viaplay
Pakistan	18:30	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	23:30	TVWan Sports
Peru	08:30	Disney+
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	14:30	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	21:30	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	15:30	Voyo
Slovenia	15:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	15:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	16:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	16:30	Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	14:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+
Vietnam	20:30	TV 360
International	13:30	Onefootball


	Freiburg		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.5	3	Watch
	2.32	3.55	2.98
	2.36	3.55	3.11
	1.59	3.97	5.51	Watch
				Watch
	2.4	3.59	3.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.23)	3.63 ↓ (3.65)	3.55 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
45%

Draw
27.2%

Hoffenheim
27.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.8%

26.1%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

26.3%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Hoffenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.2%	18.2%	13.6%

Freiburg - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Freiburg: 46.5% – 86.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hoffenheim (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Hoffenheim (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 5. Jung A. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. 6. Osterhage P. 19. Beste J. 18. Dinkci E. 32. Grifo V. (C) 20. Adamu J.	1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 2. Hranac R. 35. Arthur Chaves 13. Bernardo 29. Toure B. 7. Avdullahu L. 18. Burger W. 22. Prass A. 11. Asllani F. 27. Kramaric A.
Substitutes
30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 31. Matanovic I. 21. Muller F. (G) 37. Rosenfelder M. 7. Scherhant D. 14. Suzuki Y. 29. Treu P.	25. Akpoguma K. 9. Bebou I. 10. Damar M. 19. Lemperle T. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G) 6. Promel G. 17. Tohumcu U.
Coaches
Schuster J.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Kubler L. ⚽, Adamu J. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Asllani F. ⚽, Coufal V. (A),
38', Kubler L. ↓, Treu P. ↑,
45+6', Arthur Chaves 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Makengo J. 🟨,
59', Prass A. ↓, Damar M. ↑,
60', Schuster J. 🟨,
64', Adamu J. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
64', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
73', Kramaric A. ↓, Lemperle T. ↑,
73', Avdullahu L. ↓, Promel G. ↑,
80', Osterhage P. 🟨,
84', Beste J. ↓, Rosenfelder M. ↑,
84', Dinkci E. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
85', Burger W. ↓, Tohumcu U. ↑,
85', Asllani F. ↓, Bebou I. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Freiburg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Freiburg could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Knee Injury) Manzambi J. (Red Card)

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Gendrey V. (Ankle Injury) Hlozek A. (Foot Injury) Kabak O. (Knee Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 38:29. (average 1.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:16. (average 1.8:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Freiburg - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.81%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
24.09.25	Freiburg - Basel	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.09.25	Werder Bremen - Freiburg	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Freiburg - Stuttgart	3:1 ✺
31.08.25	Köln - Freiburg	4:1 ✺
23.08.25	Freiburg - Augsburg	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWWLL
- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
20.09.25	Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich	1:4 ✺
13.09.25	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	2:4 ✺
30.08.25	Hoffenheim - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Hoffenheim	1:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Hansa Rostock - Hoffenheim	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
19.04.25	Freiburg - Hoffenheim	3:2
08.12.24	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	1:1
20.01.24	Freiburg - Hoffenheim	3:2
19.08.23	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	1:2
12.03.23	Freiburg - Hoffenheim	2:1
18.09.22	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	0:0
30.04.22	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	3:4

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