Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 8

Date: 28 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)


	Botafogo RJ		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.8	4.5	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.4
	1.7	3.8	5
	1.79	3.72	4.9
	1.75	3.4	4.6
	1.79	3.68	4.4	Watch
	1.71	3.7	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.76)	3.67 ↑ (3.66)	4.63 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
53.8%

Draw
25.7%

América Mineiro
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

25.6%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

25.7%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.4%	10.5%	21.1%

Botafogo RJ - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Botafogo will win (votes: 13 - 68.4%). América MG will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Botafogo: 47.5% – 89.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Lucas Perri (G) 24. Di Placido L. 34. Adryelson 15. Victor Cuesta 21. Marcal (C) 17. Marlon Freitas 6. Tche Tche 33. Carlos Eduardo 18. Lucas Fernandes 11. Luis Henrique 37. Junior Santos	14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 25. Marcinho 4. Wanderson 3. Iago Maidana 22. Danilo Avelar (C) 28. Cascardo Lemos B. 21. Lucas Kal 37. Everaldo 5. Emmanuel Martinez 11. Felipe Azevedo 78. Renato Marques
Substitutes
20. Daniel Borges 22. Douglas Borges (G) 10. Gustavo Sauer 16. Hugo 52. Igo Gabriel (G) 39. Janderson 62. Kayque 43. Lucas Piazon 94. Philipe Sampaio 75. Rai 4. Segovia L. 7. Victor Sa	16. Ale 99. Aloisio 17. Gonzalo Mastriani 8. Juninho 6. Marlon 27. Mateus Goncalves 36. Mateus Henrique 1. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 87. Mikael 45. Ricardo Silva 65. Rodrigo Varanda 9. Wellington Paulista
Coaches
Castro L.	Mancini V.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Botafogo has the most likely position - 3 (11.5%), project points - 64, currently - 18, a very small chance of relegated (1%), a small chance of win league (10%).

América MG has the most likely position - 20 (13.92%), project points - 40, currently - 4, a chance of relegated (49%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 50, importance 35, match rating 42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Botafogo won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

América MG could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently América MG have a series of home games.

In this match Botafogo is a favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo: Breno (Knee Injury) Danilo (Injury) Fernandez R. (Injury) Patrick de Paula (Injury) Segovia M. (Injury)

There will not play in América MG: Adyson (Injury) Dada Belmonte (Injury) Luan Campos (Injury) Matheusinho (Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Botafogo won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Botafogo won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Copa Sudamericana
25.05.23	Universidad César Vallejo - Botafogo RJ	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.05.23	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.05.23	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo RJ	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.05.23	Goiás - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
11.05.23	Botafogo RJ - Corinthians	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLLW
- América Mineiro
Copa Sudamericana
23.05.23	América Mineiro - Defensa y Justicia	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.05.23	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.05.23	América Mineiro - Internacional RS	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
14.05.23	América Mineiro - Cruzeiro	0:4 ✺
10.05.23	Red Bull Bragantino - América Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
11.09.22	Botafogo RJ - América Mineiro	0:0
Copa do Brasil
14.07.22	Botafogo RJ - América Mineiro	0:2
30.06.22	América Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	3:0
Brazilian Serie A
21.05.22	América Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:1
16.09.18	Botafogo RJ - América Mineiro	1:0
20.05.18	América Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:0
24.09.16	América Mineiro - Botafogo RJ	1:0

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