Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports, Mi Telefe App, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV2
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Botafogo RJ		Barcelona Guayaquil

	1	X	2
	1.48	3.75	7	Watch
	1.55	3.55	6.4
	1.56	3.76	6.76
	1.56	3.81	6.68	Watch
	1.57	3.4	6	Watch
	1.59	3.73	6.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.49)	3.67 ↓ (3.72)	6.63 ↓ (8.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
60.3%

Draw
25.5%

Barcelona Guayaquil
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.2%

25.2%

11.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66%

24.1%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Barcelona Guayaquil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Botafogo RJ, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona Guayaquil than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Botafogo RJ - Barcelona Guayaquil Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Botafogo will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Barcelona (1.77) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Barcelona (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Leo Linck (G) 4. Ponte M. 15. Bastos 20. Barboza A. 2. Vitinho 28. Newton 8. Danilo 13. Alex Telles (C) 14. Barrera J. 11. Matheus Martins 10. Montoro A.	1. Contreras J. (G) 18. Carabali B. 14. Rangel A. 33. Baez J. 3. Sosa L. 4. Vallecilla G. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. 8. Celiz M. 23. Martinez T. 21. Villalba H. 10. Rojas J. (C)
Substitutes
25. Allan 19. Arthur Cabral 48. Arthur Novaes 7. Artur 45. Caio Valle 30. Correa J. 34. Justino G. 42. Kadu Santos 16. Nathan Fernandes 1. Raul Steffens (G) 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 55. Wallace Davi	9. Benedetto D. 26. Castillo B. 22. Cevallos J. (G) 44. Chala Rosales W. J. 7. Gomez J. 12. Mina J. 5. Montano C. 80. Nunez S. 11. Parrales M. 15. Perlaza J. 27. Vargas W. 51. Wila J.
Coaches
Anselmi M.	Farias Acosta C. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Celiz M. ⚽, Martinez T. (A),
34', Ponte M. ↓, Correa J. ↑,
34', Rojas J. ↓, Castillo B. ↑,
45+4', Barboza A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bastos ↓, Arthur Cabral ↑,
46', Martinez T. ↓, Perlaza J. ↑,
47', Perlaza J. 🟨,
51', Villalba H. 🟨,
58', Vallecilla G. ↓, Mina J. ↑,
59', Villalba H. ↓, Benedetto D. ↑,
60', Castillo B. 🟨,
71', Barrera J. ↓, Artur ↑,
84', Matheus Martins ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
84', Montoro A. ↓, Caio Valle ↑,
90+2', Contreras J. 🟨,
90+5', Carabali B. ↓, Chala Rosales W. J. ↑,
90+5', Celiz M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

In this match, Botafogo is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Botafogo will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Botafogo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
07.03.26	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
03.03.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
28.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Boavista	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Nacional Potosí	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
21.02.26	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WTTWW
- Barcelona Guayaquil
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.03.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Emelec	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
03.03.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.03.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.02.26	Argentinos Juniors - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:2 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.02.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
03.03.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Botafogo RJ	1:1
02.05.17	Botafogo RJ - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:2
20.04.17	Barcelona Guayaquil - Botafogo RJ	1:1

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