Match Info

BULGARIA: Parva liga - Round 18

Date: 5 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Stadion Hristo Botev (Plovdiv)

Referee: Andreev I. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 2
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub 2
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Slovenia	SportKlub 1


	Botev Plovdiv		Krumovgrad

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.5	8.5	Watch
	1.36	4.33	8
	1.36	4.4	8.6	Watch
	1.33	4.57	11.09
	1.35	4.52	9.75	Watch
	1.4	4	8
	1.37	4.5	8.8	Watch
	1.36	4.4	8.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.61)	4.4 ↑ (3.7)	8.92 ↑ (5.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botev Plovdiv
68.4%

Draw
21.2%

Krumovgrad
10.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

25.2%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.7%

24.4%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botev Plovdiv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Botev Plovdiv's performance.

Krumovgrad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Krumovgrad might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botev Plovdiv than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Botev Plovdiv that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Krumovgrad than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Krumovgrad could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Botev Plovdiv - Krumovgrad Predictions

Users Predictions: Botev Plovdiv will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bernat C. (G) 17. Minkov N. 5. Tamm J. 19. Conte A. 38. Balogiannis K. 28. Karabelyov Y. 4. Ukaki E. 88. Korosec A. 10. Popov I. (C) 21. Iliev N. 91. Triboulet V.	1. Georgiev Y. (G) 25. Rabotov S. 5. Simic M. 24. Marin L. 91. Velev V. 22. Dost E. 44. Katsarov B. (C) 13. Diego Raposo 7. Tsvetanov M. 99. Guermouche Y. 19. Milev N.
Substitutes
7. Akere S. 79. Chernev A. 32. Igonen M. (G) 22. Kajzer D. (G) 29. Kassi C. 99. Maras A. 16. Remeikis M. 42. Videv I. 6. Yordanov A.	2. Ali D. 18. Daniel 11. Georgiev A. 21. Makendzhiev B. (G) 70. Matheus Souza 12. Prandzhev N. (G) 9. Rafael Furtado 88. Vatansever S. 77. Yusein O.
Coaches
Kerkez D.	Ribarski A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Diego Raposo ↓, Matheus Souza ↑,
55', Guermouche Y. ↓, Daniel ↑,
57', 1 - 0, Korosec A. ⚽,
65', Milev N. 🟨,
70', Milev N. ↓, Rafael Furtado ↑,
72', Triboulet V. ↓, Maras A. ↑,
72', Ukaki E. ↓, Akere S. ↑,
75', Korosec A. 🟨,
81', Iliev N. ↓, Yordanov A. ↑,
84', Dost E. ↓, Yusein O. ↑,
84', Rabotov S. ↓, Ali D. ↑,
90+2', Popov I. ↓, Remeikis M. ↑,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Parva liga (Championship Group: ) and 10 in the zone Parva liga (Relegation Group: )).

Botev Plovdiv is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Krumovgrad is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Botev Plovdiv is indisputable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Botev Plovdiv to win the game is with odds 1.37.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Botev Plovdiv won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Botev Plovdiv won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botev Plovdiv
Bulgarian Parva Liga
01.12.24	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Botev Plovdiv	0:1 ✺
23.11.24	Botev Plovdiv - Botev Vratsa	3:1 ✺
08.11.24	Botev Plovdiv - Lokomotiv Sofia	2:0 ✺
04.11.24	Septemvri Sofia - Botev Plovdiv	1:0 ✺
Bulgarian Cup
31.10.24	Minyor Pernik - Botev Plovdiv	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWLW
- FC Krumovgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
01.12.24	Krumovgrad - Arda Kardzhali	0:0 ✺
25.11.24	Slavia Sofia - Krumovgrad	0:1 ✺
10.11.24	CSKA Sofia - Krumovgrad	2:2 ✺
02.11.24	Krumovgrad - Spartak Varna	0:1 ✺
26.10.24	Hebar Pazardzhik - Krumovgrad	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
04.08.24	Krumovgrad - Botev Plovdiv	0:1
17.02.24	Krumovgrad - Botev Plovdiv	2:1
20.08.23	Botev Plovdiv - Krumovgrad	1:2

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