Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 6

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Stade de la Libération (Boulogne-sur-Mer)

Referee: Benchabane F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free


	Boulogne		Pau

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.1	2.63	Watch
	2.52	3.05	2.78
	2.73	3.1	2.86
	2.6	3.24	2.77	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.3)	3.16 ↓ (3.46)	2.79 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boulogne
36.5%

Draw
29.8%

Pau
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

27.5%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

27.8%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boulogne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Pau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boulogne than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Boulogne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pau than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Boulogne - Pau Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Boulogne will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Pau will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pau: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Pau (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Pau (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Pau (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Uriev A. (G) 5. Zohore N. 25. Gourville S. 15. Pinot A. (C) 12. Boyer J. 33. Kouassi E. 23. Fatar N. 14. Bultel J. 90. Martin J. 27. Mpembele Boula E. 26. Capuano G.	22. Raveyre N. (G) 97. Meddah D. 23. Briancon A. 25. Ruiz J. (C) 4. Karamoko S. 10. Versini G. 84. Touzghar R. 26. Glossoa N. 9. Dong K. 14. Bobichon A. 7. Messi R.
Substitutes
22. Duflos S. 10. El Farissi A. 17. Fatou C. 16. Kone I. (G) 21. Platret A. 8. Raillot L. 18. Thiam D.	6. Fall C. 11. Gasnier K. 19. Kante 34. Lebouath S. 18. Sadik O. 30. Salles E. (G) 87. Zuliani E.
Coaches
Dagneaux F.	Usai N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
2', 0 - 1, Bobichon A. ⚽, Dong K. (A),
5', Karamoko S. 🟨,
31', Briancon A. ↓, Kante ↑,
34', Bultel J. 🟨,
36', 0 - 2, Bobichon A. ⚽, Versini G. (A),
43', 0 - 3, Versini G. ⚽, Meddah D. (A),
45+1', Martin J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Martin J. ↓, Raillot L. ↑,
56', Kouassi E. 🟨,
58', Bultel J. ↓, Duflos S. ↑,
59', Mpembele Boula E. ↓, El Farissi A. ↑,
65', Messi R. ↓, Zuliani E. ↑,
65', Dong K. ↓, Gasnier K. ↑,
65', Glossoa N. ↓, Lebouath S. ↑,
75', Fatar N. ↓, Fatou C. ↑,
75', Gourville S. ↓, Thiam D. ↑,
82', Versini G. ↓, Sadik O. ↑,
87', Lebouath S. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boulogne won 1.

Recent form of Boulogne has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pau's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Pau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Boulogne: Kitenge C. (Inactive) Lenogue X. (Inactive) Toure H. (Inactive)

There will not play in Pau: Gaspar J. (Inactive) Kalulu J. (Red Card) Lebouath S. (Inactive) Pouilly T. (Red Card) Sadik O. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Boulogne won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Boulogne won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Boulogne
French Ligue 2
16.09.25	Boulogne - Bastia	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Boulogne - Laval	1:2 ✺
29.08.25	Rodez - Boulogne	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Boulogne - Saint-Étienne	0:1 ✺
15.08.25	Nancy - Boulogne	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLLL
- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
12.09.25	Pau - Red Star	0:3 ✺
29.08.25	Nancy - Pau	2:2 ✺
25.08.25	Pau - Reims	2:0 ✺
15.08.25	Bastia - Pau	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	Pau - Annecy	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
20.12.19	Boulogne - Pau	0:0
21.03.19	Boulogne - Pau	1:1
19.10.18	Pau - Boulogne	3:1
20.04.18	Boulogne - Pau	1:1
08.12.17	Pau - Boulogne	2:3
10.02.17	Pau - Boulogne	0:0
02.09.16	Boulogne - Pau	3:0

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