Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth)

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bournemouth		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.5
	2.6	3.5	2.6
	2.15	3.4	3.55
	2.25	3.39	3.66
	2.33	3.03	3.28	Watch
	2.6	3.5	2.5
	2.3	3.64	3.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.54)	3.41 ↓ (3.63)	3.2 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bournemouth
41.4%

Draw
28.3%

Newcastle United
30.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

26.4%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

26.4%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newcastle United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newcastle United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.2%	14%	22.8%

Bournemouth - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Bournemouth will win (votes: 33 - 64.7%). Newcastle will win (votes: 12 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bournemouth: 51.6% – 77.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Bournemouth (1.34) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Bournemouth (1.74) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.41) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Bournemouth (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bournemouth will win (19 of 23 users predict this - 82.61%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Bournemouth (votes: 24 - 80%). Newcastle (votes: 4 - 13.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Petrovic D. (G) 20. Jimenez A. 18. Diakite B. 5. Senesi M. 3. Truffert A. 12. Adams T. 8. Scott A. 24. Semenyo A. 16. Tavernier M. 7. Brooks D. (C) 9. Evanilson	1. Pope N. (G) 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. (C) 21. Livramento V. 28. Willock J. 67. Miley L. 8. Tonali S. 3. Hall L. 23. Murphy J. 27. Woltemade N.
Substitutes
21. Adli A. 10. Christie R. 40. Dennis W. (G) 11. Doak B. 23. Hill J. 19. Kluivert J. 22. Kroupi E. J. 44. Milosavljevic V. 6. Soler J.	11. Barnes H. 39. Bruno Guimaraes 20. Elanga A. 7. Joelinton 17. Krafth E. 6. Lascelles J. 18. Osula W. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 2. Trippier K.
Coaches
Iraola A.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+3', Jimenez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jimenez A. ↓, Hill J. ↑,
62', Willock J. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
62', Murphy J. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
63', Scott A. ↓, Christie R. ↑,
63', Brooks D. ↓, Kluivert J. ↑,
74', Diakite B. 🟨,
75', Tavernier M. ↓, Adli A. ↑,
77', Thiaw M. 🟨,
84', Thiaw M. ↓, Lascelles J. ↑,
84', Woltemade N. ↓, Osula W. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bournemouth won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Bournemouth: Smith A. (Hamstring Injury) Unal E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Gordon A. (Red Card) Ramsey J. (Ankle Injury) Schar F. (Head Injury) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bournemouth: Diakite B. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Bournemouth won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:21. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Bournemouth won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.3:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
13.09.25	Bournemouth - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Bournemouth	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Bournemouth - Brentford	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Bournemouth - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
15.08.25	Liverpool - Bournemouth	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWLWL
- Newcastle United
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Newcastle United - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
13.09.25	Newcastle United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
25.08.25	Newcastle United - Liverpool	2:3 ✺
16.08.25	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
18.01.25	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:4
25.08.24	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	1:1
17.02.24	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	2:2
11.11.23	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	2:0
11.02.23	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	1:1
English League Cup
20.12.22	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:0
English Premier League
17.09.22	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:1

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