Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	15:00	SuperSport 3
Argentina	10:00	Disney+
Armenia	17:00	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	23:00	Stan Sport
Austria	15:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 4, Sky Sport Austria Premier League, Sky Sport Austria Top Event
Azerbaijan	17:00	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	15:00	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	10:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	16:00	Nova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 6 DRM, fubo Sports Network 7 DRM
Chile	10:00	Disney+
China	21:00	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	08:00	Disney+
Croatia	15:00	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	16:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	15:00	CANAL+ Sport 5, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	15:00	Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	16:00	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	15:00	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	17:00	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	15:00	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	16:00	Nova Sports Start
Hong Kong	21:00	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 1, Now Sports Premier League TV
Hungary	15:00	Match 4
Iceland	13:00	SÝN Sport 3, SÝN Sport 5
India	18:30	Disney+ Hotstar, Star Sports Select 1
Indonesia	20:00	Vidio
Ireland	14:00	NOW
Israel	16:00	Sport 2
Italy	15:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 256
Japan	22:00	U-NEXT
Kenya	16:00	Gotv
Kosovo	15:00	Arena Premium 3
Kyrgyzstan	19:00	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	21:00	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 3, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
Maldives	18:00	ICE Sports, Medianet
Malta	15:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	07:00	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max
Moldova	16:00	Setanta Sports 1
Mongolia	21:00	Premier Sports 1
Myanmar	19:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	18:45	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	15:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	01:00	Sky Sport 2
Nigeria	14:00	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	15:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 2
Peru	08:00	Disney+
Poland	15:00	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	14:00	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	16:00	Voyo
Serbia	15:00	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	21:00	Hub Premier 1, Hub Premier 3
Slovenia	15:00	Arena Sport 2
South Africa	15:00	SuperSport Premier League
South Korea	22:00	Coupang Play
Spain	15:00	DAZN 4 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:00	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	15:00	Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	21:00	ELTA Sports 4
Tajikistan	18:00	Futbol TV, Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	20:00	AIS PLAY
Turkey	16:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 5
Turkmenistan	18:00	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	16:00	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports Premium
United Kingdom	14:00	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	10:00	Disney+
Usa	09:00	NBC Sports App, NBC, Telemundo, USA Network
Uzbekistan	18:00	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	09:00	Disney+


	Bournemouth		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.5
	2.6	3.5	2.6
	2.15	3.4	3.55
	2.25	3.39	3.66
	2.33	3.03	3.28	Watch
	2.6	3.5	2.5
	2.3	3.64	3.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.54)	3.41 ↓ (3.63)	3.2 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bournemouth
41.4%

Draw
28.3%

Newcastle United
30.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.8%

26.4%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

26.4%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Newcastle United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newcastle United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.2%	14%	22.8%

Bournemouth - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Bournemouth will win (votes: 33 - 64.7%). Newcastle will win (votes: 12 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bournemouth: 51.6% – 77.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Bournemouth (1.34) (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Bournemouth (1.74) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.41) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Bournemouth (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bournemouth will win (19 of 23 users predict this - 82.61%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Bournemouth (votes: 24 - 80%). Newcastle (votes: 4 - 13.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Petrovic D. (G) 20. Jimenez A. 18. Diakite B. 5. Senesi M. 3. Truffert A. 12. Adams T. 8. Scott A. 24. Semenyo A. 16. Tavernier M. 7. Brooks D. (C) 9. Evanilson	1. Pope N. (G) 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. (C) 21. Livramento V. 28. Willock J. 67. Miley L. 8. Tonali S. 3. Hall L. 23. Murphy J. 27. Woltemade N.
Substitutes
21. Adli A. 10. Christie R. 40. Dennis W. (G) 11. Doak B. 23. Hill J. 19. Kluivert J. 22. Kroupi E. J. 44. Milosavljevic V. 6. Soler J.	11. Barnes H. 39. Bruno Guimaraes 20. Elanga A. 7. Joelinton 17. Krafth E. 6. Lascelles J. 18. Osula W. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 2. Trippier K.
Coaches
Iraola A.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+3', Jimenez A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jimenez A. ↓, Hill J. ↑,
62', Willock J. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
62', Murphy J. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
63', Scott A. ↓, Christie R. ↑,
63', Brooks D. ↓, Kluivert J. ↑,
74', Diakite B. 🟨,
75', Tavernier M. ↓, Adli A. ↑,
77', Thiaw M. 🟨,
84', Thiaw M. ↓, Lascelles J. ↑,
84', Woltemade N. ↓, Osula W. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bournemouth won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Bournemouth: Smith A. (Hamstring Injury) Unal E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Gordon A. (Red Card) Ramsey J. (Ankle Injury) Schar F. (Head Injury) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bournemouth: Diakite B. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Bournemouth won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:21. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Bournemouth won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.3:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
13.09.25	Bournemouth - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Bournemouth	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Bournemouth - Brentford	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Bournemouth - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
15.08.25	Liverpool - Bournemouth	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWLWL
- Newcastle United
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Newcastle United - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
13.09.25	Newcastle United - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
25.08.25	Newcastle United - Liverpool	2:3 ✺
16.08.25	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
18.01.25	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:4
25.08.24	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	1:1
17.02.24	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	2:2
11.11.23	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	2:0
11.02.23	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	1:1
English League Cup
20.12.22	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:0
English Premier League
17.09.22	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:1

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