Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 16

Date: 28 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga (Braga)

Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Braga		Benfica

	1	X	2
	3.4	2.95	2.01	Watch
	3.35	3.25	2.12	Watch
	3.56	3.33	2.12	Watch
	3.4	3.1	2.1
	3.64	3.33	2.19	Watch
	3.5	3.2	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↑ (3.26)	3.19 ↑ (3.18)	2.11 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Braga
26.8%

Draw
29.2%

Benfica
44.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

29.7%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

29.1%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Braga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	22.5%	62.5%

Braga - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Braga will win (votes: 6 - 15%). Benfica will win (votes: 25 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 22.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 47.5% – 77.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Braga (votes: 1 - 5%). Benfica (votes: 13 - 65%). Tie (votes: 6 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Braga (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Braga (4.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Braga (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Benfica (votes: 13 - 59.1%). Tie (votes: 6 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hornicek L. (G) 2. Gomez V. 6. Vitor Carvalho 26. Arrey-Mbi B. 20. Dorgeles M. 8. Moutinho J. 29. Gorby 5. Lelo L. 10. Zalazar R. 18. Victor P. 21. Horta R. (C)	1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 44. Araujo T. 26. Dahl S. 5. Barrenechea E. 20. Rios R. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 10. Sudakov G. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
41. da Rocha Y. 17. Gabriel Moscardo 27. Grillitsch F. 77. Martinez G. 62. Matos N. 39. Navarro F. 15. Oliveira P. 50. Rodrigues D. 12. Sa T. (G)	50. Ferreira D. (G) 9. Ivanovic F. 16. Manu 64. Oliveira G. 25. Prestianni G. 84. Rego J. 67. Rego R. 21. Schjelderup A. 4. Silva A.
Coaches
Vicens C.	Mourinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
15', Araujo T. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Otamendi N. ⚽,
30', Moutinho J. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Zalazar R. (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', 2 - 1, Victor P. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', 2 - 2, Aursnes F. ⚽, Pavlidis V. (A),
65', Horta R. 🟨,
74', Rios R. 🟨,
77', Dorgeles M. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
77', Moutinho J. ↓, Grillitsch F. ↑,
77', Victor P. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
80', Sudakov G. ↓, Prestianni G. ↑,
80', Barreiro L. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
86', Zalazar R. ↓, Gabriel Moscardo ↑,
88', Gabriel Moscardo 🟨,
90+3', Horta R. 🟨,
90+6', Gomez V. ↓, Oliveira P. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braga won 1.

Braga is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Benfica is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Braga has had a series of away games.

Benfica might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Braga: El Ouazzani A. (Inactive) Niakate S. (International duty) Noro J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Vidigal S. (Injury)

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Lukebakio D. (Broken ankle)

There are questionable in Braga: Lagerbielke G. (Injury)

There are questionable in Benfica: Araujo T. (Injury) Barreiro L. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Braga won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 25:36. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Braga won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Braga
Taça de Portugal
23.12.25	Caldas - Braga	0:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
19.12.25	Estoril Praia - Braga	1:0 ✺
15.12.25	Braga - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Nice - Braga	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.12.25	Famalicão - Braga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWWW
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
22.12.25	Benfica - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
17.12.25	Farense - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
14.12.25	Moreirense - Benfica	0:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Benfica - Napoli	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
05.12.25	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
17.05.25	Braga - Benfica	1:1
Taça de Portugal
26.02.25	Benfica - Braga	1:0
Portuguese League Cup
08.01.25	Benfica - Braga	3:0
Liga Portugal
04.01.25	Benfica - Braga	1:2
27.04.24	Benfica - Braga	3:1
Taça de Portugal
10.01.24	Benfica - Braga	3:2
Liga Portugal
17.12.23	Braga - Benfica	0:1

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