Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 15

Date: 19 December 2025, Friday

Location: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Portugal	Sport TV1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Estoril Praia		Braga

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.9	1.62	Watch
	4.7	3.7	1.68	Watch
	4.97	4.09	1.71
	4.86	4.06	1.67	Watch
	4.6	3.9	1.67
	5.17	4.04	1.7	Watch
	5	4	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.86 ↑ (3.87)	3.96 ↑ (3.39)	1.67 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Estoril Praia
19.4%

Draw
23.9%

Braga
56.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.8%

27.2%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.9%

27.4%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Braga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Braga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.6%	14%	74.4%

Estoril Praia - Braga Predictions

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. Estoril will win (votes: 5 - 11.9%). Braga will win (votes: 31 - 73.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Braga: 60.5% – 87.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Braga (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Estoril (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Braga will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Braga (votes: 15 - 88.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Robles J. (G) 2. Sanchez R. 44. Boma K. 25. Bacher F. 24. Amaral P. 6. Jandro 10. Holsgrove J. 99. Guitane R. 12. Carvalho J. (C) 19. Lacximicant A. 14. Begraoui Y.	1. Hornicek L. (G) 6. Vitor Carvalho 14. Lagerbielke G. 26. Arrey-Mbi B. 2. Gomez V. 50. Rodrigues D. 8. Moutinho J. (C) 29. Gorby 77. Martinez G. 10. Zalazar R. 18. Victor P.
Substitutes
22. Carvalho P. 4. Ferro 17. Garcia F. 7. Lominadze N. 9. Marques A. 55. Parente T. 21. Pizzi 5. Tsoungui A. 16. Turk M. (G)	41. da Rocha Y. 20. Dorgeles M. 17. Gabriel Moscardo 27. Grillitsch F. 21. Horta R. 5. Lelo L. 39. Navarro F. 15. Oliveira P. 12. Sa T. (G)
Coaches
Cathro I.	Vicens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', Jandro 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Lacximicant A. ⚽, Amaral P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Rodrigues D. ↓, Horta R. ↑,
61', Vitor Carvalho ↓, Dorgeles M. ↑,
62', Guitane R. ↓, Ferro ↑,
62', Victor P. 🟨,
71', Jandro ↓, Lominadze N. ↑,
71', Amaral P. ↓, Parente T. ↑,
73', Martinez G. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
73', Gorby ↓, Grillitsch F. ↑,
78', Sanchez R. 🟨,
78', Lacximicant A. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
78', Sanchez R. ↓, Tsoungui A. ↑,
82', Parente T. 🟨,
83', Moutinho J. ↓, Lelo L. ↑,
90+2', Grillitsch F. 🟨,
90+2', Garcia F. 🟨,
90+5', Tsoungui A. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 0.

Recent form of Estoril has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Braga is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Braga has had a series of away games.

In this match, Braga is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Estoril: Guitane R. (International duty) Xeka (Injury)

There will not play in Braga: Niakate S. (International duty) Noro J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Vidigal S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Estoril: Costa G. (Injury) Israelov O. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 13:46. (average 0.7:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:19. (average 0.5:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
14.12.25	Famalicão - Estoril Praia	4:0 ✺
07.12.25	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	3:3 ✺
30.11.25	Porto - Estoril Praia	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.11.25	Estoril Praia - Arouca	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTLLW
- SC Braga
Liga Portugal
15.12.25	Braga - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Nice - Braga	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
06.12.25	Famalicão - Braga	1:2 ✺
01.12.25	Arouca - Braga	0:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Glasgow Rangers - Braga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
19.04.25	Estoril Praia - Braga	0:2
06.12.24	Braga - Estoril Praia	2:2
13.04.24	Estoril Praia - Braga	0:1
Portuguese League Cup
27.01.24	Braga - Estoril Praia	2:1 penalties
Liga Portugal
03.12.23	Braga - Estoril Praia	3:1
08.04.23	Braga - Estoril Praia	4:1
22.10.22	Estoril Praia - Braga	0:2

Upcoming Matches