Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 10 December 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
Albania	21:00	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 6
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 5, Play Sports 6
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	17:00	HBO Max
Bulgaria	22:00	Ring, Voyo
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	21:00	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 5
Germany	21:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	20:00	Viaplay
India	01:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Italy	21:00	Amazon Prime Video
Kenya	23:00	Gotv
Kosovo	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Canal+ Action, Canal+
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	14:00	HBO Max
Mongolia	04:00	Premier Sports 5
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 6
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	21:00	SuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport OTT 3
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Philippines	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 6
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1, Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	04:00	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 3
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport OTT 3, SuperSport Variety 2
South America	—	ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South, Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 6
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1
Taiwan	04:00	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect
Turkey	23:00	Tabii Spor 5, Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus, TV 360


	Benfica		Napoli

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.2	2.63
	2.88	3.05	2.8
	2.86	3.09	2.86
	2.81	3.14	2.81	Watch
	2.75	3	2.7
	2.85	3.21	2.72
	2.66	3.1	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↑ (2.32)	3.11 ↓ (3.59)	2.76 ↓ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
34.4%

Draw
30.9%

Napoli
34.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.4%

26.7%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

26.3%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Benfica's form might have worsened.

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Benfica, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.9%	30.6%	24.5%

Benfica - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 22 - 45.8%). Napoli will win (votes: 12 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 29.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 31.7% – 59.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 7 - 43.8%). Napoli (votes: 4 - 25%). Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Benfica (2.59) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH 0 - Napoli (1.93) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Napoli (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 8 - 34.8%). Napoli (votes: 10 - 43.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 44. Araujo T. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 20. Rios R. 5. Barrenechea E. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 10. Sudakov G. 9. Ivanovic F.	32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 31. Beukema S. 13. Rrahmani A. 4. Buongiorno A. 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 8. McTominay S. 20. Elmas E. 17. Olivera M. 7. David Neres 19. Hojlund R. 70. Lang N.
Substitutes
88. Freitas T. 16. Manu 62. Neto J. 14. Pavlidis V. 25. Prestianni G. 84. Rego J. 67. Rego R. 21. Schjelderup A. 4. Silva A. 24. Soares S. (G) 68. Veloso J. 66. Wynder J.	69. Ambrosino G. 14. Contini N. (G) 25. Ferrante M. (G) 5. Juan Jesus 27. Lucca L. 21. Politano M. 37. Spinazzola L. 26. Vergara A.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Conte A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Rios R. ⚽, Ivanovic F. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Olivera M. ↓, Spinazzola L. ↑,
46', Beukema S. ↓, Politano M. ↑,
49', 2 - 0, Barreiro L. ⚽, Rios R. (A),
53', Lang N. 🟨,
59', Buongiorno A. ↓, Juan Jesus ↑,
74', Lang N. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
76', Ivanovic F. ↓, Pavlidis V. ↑,
76', Sudakov G. ↓, Silva A. ↑,
78', Dedic A. 🟨,
81', Elmas E. ↓, Vergara A. ↑,
87', Vergara A. 🟨,
90+4', Aursnes F. ↓, Freitas T. ↑,
90+5', Barreiro L. ↓, Neto J. ↑,

Preview

Benfica is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Napoli is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Benfica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Napoli has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Lukebakio D. (Broken ankle)

There will not play in Napoli: Anguissa F. (Thigh Injury) De Bruyne K. (Thigh Injury) Gilmour B. (Groin Injury) Lobotka S. (Muscle Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Marianucci L. (Inactive) Mazzocchi P. (Inactive) Meret A. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Benfica: Araujo H. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: Gutierrez M. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1.3:2.7).

Including home match between the teams, Benfica won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
05.12.25	Benfica - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Nacional - Benfica	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Ajax - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.11.25	Atlético CP - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Benfica - Casa Pia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWWWT
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
07.12.25	Napoli - Juventus	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
03.12.25	Napoli - Cagliari	2:1 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
30.11.25	Roma - Napoli	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Napoli - Qarabağ Agdam	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.11.25	Napoli - Atalanta	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
06.12.16	Benfica - Napoli	1:2
28.09.16	Napoli - Benfica	4:2
Club Friendly
09.08.13	Napoli - Benfica	2:1

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