Match Info

ITALY: Serie B - Round 23

Date: 26 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Mario Rigamonti (Brescia)

Referee: Caputi M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia


	Brescia		Catanzaro

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.2	2.88	Watch
	2.45	3	3
	2.5	2.95	3
	2.6	3.1	3.08
	2.56	3.06	3	Watch
	2.2	3	3.5
	2.56	3.1	2.95	Watch
	2.5	2.95	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.28)	3.05 ↓ (3.31)	3.05 ↓ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brescia
38%

Draw
31%

Catanzaro
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

28.3%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

28.2%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brescia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Catanzaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brescia than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	81%	9.5%

Brescia - Catanzaro Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Brescia will win (votes: 2 - 10%). Catanzaro will win (votes: 2 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 62.5% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lezzerini L. (G) 24. Dickmann L. 32. Papetti A. 28. Adorni D. 5. Calvani G. 27. Olzer G. 26. Bertagnoli M. 25. Bisoli D. (C) 39. Besaggio M. 20. Nuamah P. 29. Borrelli G.	22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 23. Brighenti N. 4. Matias Antonini 6. Bonini F. 84. Cassandro T. 80. Coulibaly M. 10. Petriccione J. 20. Pontisso S. 3. Quagliata G. 9. Iemmello P. (C) 28. Biasci T.
Substitutes
22. Andrenacci L. (G) 12. Avella M. (G) 9. Bianchi F. 8. Bjarnason B. 19. Corrado N. 23. Galazzi N. 18. Jallow A. 7. Juric A. 14. Maucci G. 33. Muca Z. 4. Paghera F.	99. Borrelli E. (G) 17. Brignola E. 45. Buso N. 27. Ceresoli A. 25. Gelmi L. (G) 8. Ilie R. 19. La Mantia A. 61. Maiolo F. 24. Pagano R. 90. Pittarello F.
Coaches
Bisoli P.	Caserta F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Nuamah P. ⚽, Borrelli G. (A),
11', 1 - 1, Iemmello P. ⚽, Quagliata G. (A),
19', Coulibaly M. 🟨,
21', Pigliacelli M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Besaggio M. ↓, Juric A. ↑,
46', Olzer G. ↓, Jallow A. ↑,
51', Iemmello P. (Pen),
55', Coulibaly M. ↓, Buso N. ↑,
65', Biasci T. ↓, Pittarello F. ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Bonini F. ⚽, Quagliata G. (A),
69', Papetti A. ↓, Galazzi N. ↑,
71', Bisoli D. 🟨,
77', Borrelli G. ↓, Bianchi F. ↑,
82', Calvani G. ↓, Bjarnason B. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Bianchi F. ⚽, Bisoli D. (A),
90+1', Iemmello P. ↓, Pagano R. ↑,
90+7', 2 - 3, Bonini F. ⚽, Quagliata G. (A),

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 9).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Catanzaro could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Brescia will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Catanzaro: Pontisso S. (Yellow Cards) Scognamillo S. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Catanzaro: Breit P. (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Brescia won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:9 (average 1.8:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Brescia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brescia Calcio
Italian Serie B
18.01.25	Bari - Brescia	2:2 ✺
12.01.25	Brescia - Sampdoria	1:1 ✺
29.12.24	Cremonese - Brescia	1:1 ✺
26.12.24	Brescia - Modena	3:3 ✺
20.12.24	Salernitana - Brescia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TTTTT
- US Catanzaro
Italian Serie B
19.01.25	Catanzaro - Pisa	0:0 ✺
12.01.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Catanzaro	1:1 ✺
29.12.24	Catanzaro - Salernitana	1:0 ✺
26.12.24	Nuova Cosenza - Catanzaro	1:1 ✺
21.12.24	Catanzaro - Spezia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
08.12.24	Catanzaro - Brescia	2:1
18.05.24	Catanzaro - Brescia	4:2 ET
16.03.24	Brescia - Catanzaro	1:1
23.12.23	Catanzaro - Brescia	2:3

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