Match Info

Serie B - Round 36

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Nicola Ceravolo (Catanzaro)

Referee: Piccinini M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Catanzaro		Spezia

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	3	Watch
	2.2	3.35	3.05
	2.37	3.45	3.21
	2.24	3.45	3.05	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3
	2.29	3.46	3.06	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (1.99)	3.39 ↓ (3.69)	3.06 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Catanzaro
41.7%

Draw
27.7%

Spezia
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

25.3%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

23.7%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Catanzaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Catanzaro's form might have worsened.

Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Catanzaro - Spezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Catanzaro will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Spezia will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Spezia (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Spezia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 84. Cassandro T. 4. Matias Antonini 6. Fellipe Jack 27. Favasuli C. 20. Pontisso S. (C) 10. Petriccione J. 94. Di Francesco F. 14. Liberali M. 30. Alesi G. 8. Pittarello F.	12. Mascardi D. (G) 37. Mateju A. 55. Hristov P. (C) 31. Aurelio G. 17. Sernicola L. 34. Comotto C. 8. Nagy A. 5. Valoti M. 11. Beruatto P. 20. Di Serio G. 10. Lapadula G.
Substitutes
5. Bashi E. 98. Buglio D. 2. Esteves G. 62. Frosinini R. 39. Koffi N. 12. Madia L. (G) 1. Marietta C. (G) 19. Nuamah P. 28. Oudin R. 21. Pompetti M. 32. Rispoli F. 26. Verrengia B.	70. Adamo E. 25. Bandinelli F. 6. Bellemo A. 24. Bertoncini A. 94. Bonfanti G. 85. Guidi S. (G) 16. Loria L. (G) 60. Romano A. 4. Ruggero M. 90. Skjellerup L. 32. Vignali L.
Coaches
Aquilani A.	D'Angelo L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Petriccione J. ⚽, Favasuli C. (A),
44', 1 - 1, Valoti M. ⚽, Lapadula G. (A),
45', Di Serio G. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
63', 2 - 1, Fellipe Jack ⚽, Favasuli C. (A),
66', Petriccione J. 🟨,
67', Di Serio G. ↓, Skjellerup L. ↑,
67', Nagy A. ↓, Romano A. ↑,
71', Petriccione J. ↓, Rispoli F. ↑,
75', Hristov P. 🟨,
77', Fellipe Jack ↓, Frosinini R. ↑,
78', Pontisso S. ↓, Pompetti M. ↑,
78', Liberali M. ↓, Nuamah P. ↑,
78', Beruatto P. ↓, Adamo E. ↑,
78', 3 - 1, Pittarello F. ⚽, Frosinini R. (A),
80', Valoti M. 🟨,
82', 4 - 1, Pittarello F. ⚽, Di Francesco F. (A),
87', Sernicola L. ↓, Vignali L. ↑,
87', Comotto C. ↓, Bellemo A. ↑,
89', Di Francesco F. ↓, Esteves G. ↑,
90+3', 4 - 2, Lapadula G. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 1.

Catanzaro has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Spezia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Spezia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Catanzaro could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Catanzaro: Cisse A. (Muscle Injury) D'Alessandro M. (Inactive) Favasuli C. (Injury) Iemmello P. (Injury) Petriccione J. (Injury)

There will not play in Spezia: Cassata F. (Muscle Injury) Sarr M. (Ankle Injury) Zurkowski S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Catanzaro: Matias Antonini (Injury)

There are questionable in Spezia: Artistico G. (Inactive) Bonfanti G. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Catanzaro won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Catanzaro: 0.82%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	5:9	-4	3

Last Results with these Odds

Spezia - the odds 3.35 are the expected chance of winning is 27.85%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Catanzaro
Italian Serie B
18.04.26	Juve Stabia - Catanzaro	1:1 ✺
14.04.26	Catanzaro - Modena	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Avellino - Catanzaro	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Catanzaro - Monza	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Cesena - Catanzaro	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTTTL
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
18.04.26	Spezia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	6:1 ✺
12.04.26	Spezia - Mantova	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Carrarese - Spezia	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Juve Stabia - Spezia	3:1 ✺
17.03.26	Spezia - Empoli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
30.08.25	Spezia - Catanzaro	0:0
25.05.25	Spezia - Catanzaro	2:1
21.05.25	Catanzaro - Spezia	0:2
23.02.25	Spezia - Catanzaro	0:1
21.12.24	Catanzaro - Spezia	0:1
03.02.24	Spezia - Catanzaro	1:1
30.08.23	Catanzaro - Spezia	3:0

Upcoming Matches