Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 19

Date: 26 December 2023, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Mario Rigamonti (Brescia)

Referee: Emmanuele M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV


	Brescia		Parma

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.25	2.15	Watch
	3.4	3.2	2.15
	3.4	3.25	2.15	Watch
	3.77	3.31	2.17
	3.77	3.31	2.17
	3.4	3.2	2.05
	3.55	3.26	2.11	Watch
	3.4	3.15	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↑ (2.99)	3.24 ↑ (2.96)	2.14 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brescia
26.8%

Draw
29.1%

Parma
44.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

31.2%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

32.2%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brescia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Parma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Parma's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brescia than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Parma than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	23.1%	46.2%

Brescia - Parma Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Brescia will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Parma will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Parma: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Andrenacci L. (G) 28. Adorni D. 15. Cistana A. 32. Papetti A. 3. Huard M. 26. Bertagnoli M. 4. Paghera F. 18. Jallow A. 11. Moncini G. 9. Bianchi F. 27. Olzer G.	1. Chichizola L. (G) 15. Del Prato E. 4. Balogh B. 39. Circati A. 26. Coulibaly W. 98. Man D. 64. Cyprien W. 10. Bernabe A. 27. Hernani 28. Mihaila V. 17. Colak A.
Substitutes
39. Besaggio M. 7. Bjarnason B. 29. Borrelli G. 12. Cortese S. (G) 31. Ferro M. 21. Fogliata R. 23. Galazzi N. 19. Maccherini Tonini E. 14. Mangraviti M. 16. Riviera C. 5. Van de Looi T.	7. Benedyczak A. 13. Bonny A. 23. Camara D. 9. Charpentier G. 40. Corvi E. (G) 77. Di Chiara G. 8. Estevez N. 20. Hainaut A. 3. Osorio Y. 21. Partipilo A. 19. Sohm S. 22. Turk M. (G)
Coaches
Maran R.	Pecchia F.

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 9 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Brescia won 2.

Brescia is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Parma is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Parma will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Brescia won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Brescia won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brescia Calcio
Italian Serie B
23.12.23	Catanzaro - Brescia	2:3 ✺
16.12.23	Brescia - Como	2:0 ✺
10.12.23	Reggiana - Brescia	1:1 ✺
03.12.23	Brescia - Sampdoria	3:1 ✺
28.11.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Brescia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 WWTWT
- FC Parma
Italian Serie B
23.12.23	Parma - Ternana	3:1 ✺
16.12.23	Nuova Cosenza - Parma	0:0 ✺
10.12.23	Parma - Palermo	3:3 ✺
Coppa Italia
06.12.23	Fiorentina - Parma	3:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie B
02.12.23	Spezia - Parma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
07.05.23	Parma - Brescia	2:0
12.12.22	Brescia - Parma	0:2
11.04.22	Brescia - Parma	1:0
01.12.21	Parma - Brescia	0:1
Italian Serie A
25.07.20	Brescia - Parma	1:2
22.12.19	Parma - Brescia	1:1
Italian Serie B
03.02.18	Brescia - Parma	2:1

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