Match Info

Serie A - Round 28

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Zufferli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Albania	15:00	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	11:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	18:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	01:00	beIN Connect
Austria	15:00	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:00	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	11:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	16:00	Max Sport 3
Canada	10:00	DAZN Canada, FuboTV
China	22:00	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	09:00	ESPN
Croatia	15:00	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	15:00	TV2 Play
Finland	16:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	15:00	DAZN France
Germany	15:00	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	16:00	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	22:00	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	15:00	Match 4
Indonesia	21:00	Vidio
Italy	15:00	214 DAZN Zona, 215 DAZN Zona, DAZN 2, DAZN Italia
Japan	23:00	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	15:00	ART Sport 1
Kuwait	17:00	Shasha
Macao	22:00	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
Malta	15:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	08:00	Disney+, ESPN
New Zealand	03:00	beIN Connect
North Macedonia	15:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:00	VG+
Peru	09:00	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	15:00	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	16:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	17:00	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	17:00	STC TV
Serbia	15:00	Arena Sport 1
South Africa	16:00	SuperSport Football
South Korea	23:00	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	15:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:00	TV4 Play
Switzerland	15:00	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	21:00	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	15:00	Diwan Sport
Turkey	17:00	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Ukraine	16:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	14:00	DAZN
Uruguay	11:00	Disney+
Usa	10:00	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	10:00	Disney+
Vietnam	21:00	TV 360, VTVcab
International	14:00	Starzplay Sports app


	Fiorentina		Parma

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	5.25	Watch
	1.7	3.75	5
	1.75	3.7	4.7	Watch
	1.77	3.72	5.2
	1.77	3.54	5.01	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.6
	1.82	3.66	5.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.7)	3.62 ↓ (3.67)	4.99 ↓ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
54.5%

Draw
26.3%

Parma
19.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.9%

25.9%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

25%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Parma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Parma than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.6%	35.7%	10.7%

Fiorentina - Parma Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 15 - 57.7%). Parma will win (votes: 3 - 11.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 38.7% – 76.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Fiorentina (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Parma (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Parma (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (C) 2. Dodo 5. Pongracic M. 6. Ranieri L. 21. Gosens R. 8. Mandragora R. 44. Fagioli N. 27. Ndour C. 17. Harrison J. 91. Piccoli R. 10. Gudmundsson A.	40. Corvi E. (G) 15. Delprato E. (C) 37. Troilo M. 39. Circati A. 25. Cremaschi B. 41. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 16. Keita M. 22. Sorensen O. 14. Valeri E. 9. Pellegrino M. 7. Strefezza G.
Substitutes
62. Balbo L. 61. Braschi R. 4. Brescianini M. 53. Christensen O. (G) 15. Comuzzo P. 80. Fabbian G. 22. Fazzini J. 29. Fortini N. 60. Kouadio E. 50. Leonardelli P. (G) 3. Rugani D.	29. Carboni F. 70. Conde B. 23. Elphege N. 8. Estevez N. 63. Mena M. 3. Ndiaye A. 17. Ondrejka J. 24. Ordonez C. 66. Rinaldi F. (G) 31. Suzuki Z. (G)
Coaches
Vanoli P.	Cuesta C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Nicolussi Caviglia H. ↓, Ordonez C. ↑,
61', Mandragora R. 🟨,
64', Mandragora R. ↓, Fabbian G. ↑,
72', Pellegrino M. ↓, Elphege N. ↑,
72', Strefezza G. ↓, Oristanio G. ↑,
81', Harrison J. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
82', Sorensen O. ↓, Estevez N. ↑,
86', Ndour C. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
86', Pongracic M. ↓, Comuzzo P. ↑,
90', Dodo 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 1.

In recent matches, Fiorentina has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Parma is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fiorentina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fiorentina is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Lamptey T. (Knee Injury) Lezzerini L. (Muscle Injury) Parisi F. (Yellow Cards) Solomon M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Parma: Almqvist P. (Thigh Injury) Bernabe A. (Muscle Injury) Britschgi S. (Muscle Injury) Frigan M. (Knee Injury) Valenti L. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Kean M. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina won 4 matches, drew 11 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:20. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fiorentina won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:10. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Fiorentina	7	1	1	5	8:17	-9	4
19	Parma	7	1	1	5	4:13	-9	4

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Fiorentina: 0.25% Parma: 0.15%

Last Results with these Odds

Fiorentina - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 55.86%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
02.03.26	Udinese - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Fiorentina - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:4 ET ✺
Italian Serie A
23.02.26	Fiorentina - Pisa	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Fiorentina	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
14.02.26	Como - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LLWWW
- FC Parma
Italian Serie A
27.02.26	Parma - Cagliari	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Milan - Parma	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Parma - Verona	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Bologna - Parma	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Parma - Juventus	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.9 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
27.12.25	Parma - Fiorentina	1:0
13.04.25	Fiorentina - Parma	0:0
17.08.24	Parma - Fiorentina	1:1
Coppa Italia
06.12.23	Fiorentina - Parma	3:2 penalties
Club Friendly
20.07.23	Fiorentina - Parma	1:1
Italian Serie A
07.03.21	Fiorentina - Parma	3:3
07.11.20	Parma - Fiorentina	0:0

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