Match Info

Date: 21 May 2022, Saturday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: El Hadj H. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Amazon Prime Video
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2, Eleven Sports 3


	Brest		Bordeaux

	1	X	2
	1.6	4.75	4.5	Watch
	1.65	4.33	4.6
	1.6	4.5	4.65
	1.62	4.4	4.7
	1.65	4.62	4.78
	1.6	4.2	5	Watch
	1.61	4.65	4.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.87)	4.49 ↑ (3.91)	4.74 ↑ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
58.8%

Draw
21.2%

Bordeaux
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

24.3%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

24.3%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Brest's performance.

Bordeaux has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Brest that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bordeaux than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.2%	14%	8.8%

Brest - Bordeaux Predictions

Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Brest will win (votes: 44 - 77.2%). Bordeaux will win (votes: 5 - 8.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 14%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brest: 66.3% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 11 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Brest has the most likely position - 11 (82.02%), has project points - 50, has currently - 48, has not chance of relegated, has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Bordeaux has the most likely position - 20 (99.22%), has project points - 29, has currently - 28, has a very good chance of relegated (>99%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 49, very small importance 0, small match rating 25. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Brest won 3.

Recent matches Brest is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Bordeaux is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Brest is a favorite.

There will not play in Brest: Cibois S. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Faussurier J. (Injury)

There will not play in Bordeaux: Costil B. (Knee Injury) Elis A. (Knee Injury) Gregersen S. (Injury) Mensah G. (Red Card) Niang M. (Coach's decision) Pembele T. (Knee Injury) Sissokho I. (Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Brest won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Brest won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
14.05.22	Monaco - Brest	4:2 ✺
07.05.22	Brest - Strasbourg	0:1 ✺
01.05.22	Brest - Clermont	2:0 ✺
24.04.22	Metz - Brest	0:1 ✺
20.04.22	Brest - Lyon	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 LLWWW
- Girondins de Bordeaux
French Ligue 1
14.05.22	Bordeaux - Lorient	0:0 ✺
08.05.22	Angers - Bordeaux	4:1 ✺
01.05.22	Bordeaux - Nice	0:1 ✺
24.04.22	Nantes - Bordeaux	5:3 ✺
20.04.22	Bordeaux - Saint-Étienne	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Coupe De France
02.01.22	Brest - Bordeaux	3:0
French Ligue 1
28.11.21	Bordeaux - Brest	1:2
07.02.21	Brest - Bordeaux	2:1
06.12.20	Bordeaux - Brest	1:0
05.02.20	Brest - Bordeaux	1:1
French Coupe de la Ligue
18.12.19	Brest - Bordeaux	2:0
French Ligue 1
21.09.19	Bordeaux - Brest	2:2

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