Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 24

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Metz		Brest

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.3	2.2	Watch
	3.2	3.4	2.2
	3.35	3.35	2.18
	3.45	3.45	2.26
	3.4	3.43	2.14	Watch
	3.25	3.25	2.15
	3.52	3.5	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (3.2)	3.38 ↓ (3.4)	2.2 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
28.4%

Draw
28.2%

Brest
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

27.6%

43%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

27.2%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8%	12%	80%

Metz - Brest Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Brest (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Brest will win (20 of 25 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.32% – 95.68%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Brest will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fischer J. (G) 39. Kouao K. 38. Sane S. 5. Gbamin J. 2. Colin M. 8. Traore B. 70. Sarr B. 33. Munongo B. 12. Toure A. 7. Tsitaishvili G. 30. Diallo H. (C)	30. Coudert G. (G) 77. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 4. Diaz Jr. M. 27. Guindo D. 13. Chotard J. 8. Magnetti H. 10. Del Castillo R. 23. Doumbia K. 7. Dina Ebimbe J. 19. Ajorque L.
Substitutes
9. Abuashvili G. 97. Ballo-Toure F. 40. Ba O. (G) 11. Kvilitaia G. 34. Mbala N. 4. Mboula U. 25. Melieres C. 19. Michal L. 15. Yegbe T.	44. Coulibaly S. 14. Labeau Lascary R. 71. Le Guen R. 2. Locko B. 1. Majecki R. (G) 33. Makalou H. 99. Mboup P. 24. Tousart L. 12. Zogbe L.
Coaches
Tavenot B.	Roy E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Guindo D. 🟥,
26', Dina Ebimbe J. ↓, Locko B. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Munongo B. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
51', Tsitaishvili G. 🟨,
52', Diaz Jr. M. 🟨,
59', Sarr B. ↓, Kvilitaia G. ↑,
67', Sane S. 🟨,
69', 0 - 1, Ajorque L. ⚽, Chardonnet B. (A),
74', Doumbia K. ↓, Labeau Lascary R. ↑,
76', Colin M. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
76', Toure A. ↓, Mbala N. ↑,
81', Traore B. ↓, Mboula U. ↑,
83', Del Castillo R. ↓, Tousart L. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 1.

Metz has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Brest has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Brest may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Brest could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Stambouli B. (Injury) Sy P. (Concussion)

There will not play in Brest: Balde M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Metz: Hein G. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Brest: Diaz Jr. M. (Inactive) Labeau Lascary R. (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Metz won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 0.6:1.1).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Brest: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Brest	5	1	2	2	7:8	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
21.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Metz	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	Metz - Auxerre	1:3 ✺
06.02.26	Metz - Lille	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Angers - Metz	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Metz - Lyon	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLTLL
- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
20.02.26	Brest - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Lille - Brest	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Brest - Lorient	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Nice - Brest	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Brest - Toulouse	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
23.11.25	Brest - Metz	3:2
07.04.24	Brest - Metz	4:3
10.12.23	Metz - Brest	0:1
24.04.22	Metz - Brest	0:1
26.09.21	Brest - Metz	1:2
31.01.21	Brest - Metz	2:4
29.11.20	Metz - Brest	0:2

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