Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 21

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Angoula G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brest		Lorient

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.5	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3.3
	2.38	3.15	3.2	Watch
	2.4	3.19	3.4
	2.34	3.18	3.21	Watch
	2.3	3	3.1
	2.35	3.07	3.58	Watch
	2.36	3.14	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.29)	3.12 ↑ (3.07)	3.32 ↓ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
40.8%

Draw
30.5%

Lorient
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

30.8%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

32.4%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Lorient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.4%	17.9%	35.7%

Brest - Lorient Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Brest will win (votes: 13 - 46.4%). Lorient will win (votes: 10 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 17.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brest: 27.9% – 64.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Lorient (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Lorient (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Lorient (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Lorient (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Lorient (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Coudert G. (G) 77. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 4. Diaz Jr. M. 27. Guindo D. 13. Chotard J. 8. Magnetti H. 10. Del Castillo R. 23. Doumbia K. 14. Labeau Lascary R. 19. Ajorque L.	16. Mvogo Y. (G) 32. Adjei N. 3. Talbi M. 5. Meite B. 11. Le Bris T. 62. Avom A. 6. Abergel L. (C) 43. Kouassi A. 17. Makengo J. 10. Pagis P. 12. Dieng B.
Substitutes
7. Dina Ebimbe J. 39. Lassus A. 71. Le Guen R. 1. Majecki R. (G) 33. Makalou H. 99. Mboup P. 24. Tousart L. 12. Zogbe L.	9. Bamba M. 8. Cadiou N. 2. Igor Silva 21. Kamara B. (G) 29. Karim D. 35. Leaudais L. 28. Soumano S. 15. Tosin A. 44. Yongwa D.
Coaches
Roy E.	Pantaloni O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Magnetti H. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 1 - 0, Labeau Lascary R. ⚽,
63', Dieng B. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
63', Makengo J. ↓, Tosin A. ↑,
64', Kouassi A. ↓, Yongwa D. ↑,
73', Pagis P. ↓, Karim D. ↑,
74', Labeau Lascary R. ↓, Dina Ebimbe J. ↑,
77', 2 - 0, Ajorque L. ⚽,
80', Ajorque L. 🟨,
80', Avom A. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
83', Doumbia K. ↓, Tousart L. ↑,
90+2', Del Castillo R. ↓, Mboup P. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brest won 2.

Brest has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lorient is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Lorient may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Brest will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Brest: Balde M. (Injury) Coulibaly S. (Thigh Injury) Locko B. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Lorient: Fadiga B. (Injury) Faye A. (Foot Injury) Toure I. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brest won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 35:28. (average 1.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Brest won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:11. (average 2:1.1).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lorient: 0.34% Brest: 0.34%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Brest	5	1	2	2	7:8	-1	5
13	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
01.02.26	Nice - Brest	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Brest - Toulouse	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Lyon - Brest	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Brest - Auxerre	2:0 ✺
Coupe De France
19.12.25	Avranches - Brest	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLLWL
- FC Lorient
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Lorient - Paris FC	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
31.01.26	Lorient - Nantes	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Rennes - Lorient	0:2 ✺
16.01.26	Monaco - Lorient	1:3 ✺
Coupe De France
10.01.26	Hauts Lyonnais - Lorient	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
19.10.25	Lorient - Brest	3:3
Club Friendly
20.07.24	Lorient - Brest	1:1
French Ligue 1
31.03.24	Lorient - Brest	0:1
20.12.23	Brest - Lorient	4:0
07.05.23	Lorient - Brest	2:1
09.10.22	Brest - Lorient	1:2
Club Friendly
16.07.22	Brest - Lorient	1:0

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