Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 18

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Referee: Delajod W. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
International	Onefootball


	Monaco		Lorient

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.2	5	Watch
	1.62	4.25	4.9	Watch
	1.65	4.26	4.7	Watch
	1.62	3.9	4.8
	1.66	4.31	5.13	Watch
	1.63	4.2	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.57)	4.19 ↓ (4.45)	4.92 ↓ (5.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Monaco
58.1%

Draw
22.7%

Lorient
19.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.1%

21.2%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.1%

21.9%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Lorient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.1%	16.9%	6%

Monaco - Lorient Predictions

Users Predictions: 80 users predict this event. Monaco will win (votes: 62 - 77.5%). Lorient will win (votes: 5 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 16.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monaco: 68.3% – 86.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Monaco will win (27 of 32 users predict this - 84.38%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Kohn P. (G) 20. Ouattara K. 3. Dier E. 25. Faes W. 12. Caio Henrique 6. Zakaria D. (C) 4. Teze J. 10. Golovin A. 11. Akliouche M. 14. Biereth M. 9. Balogun F.	38. Mvogo Y. (G) 5. Meite B. 3. Talbi M. 2. Igor Silva 11. Le Bris T. 6. Abergel L. (C) 8. Cadiou N. 43. Kouassi A. 17. Makengo J. 12. Dieng B. 10. Pagis P.
Substitutes
23. Bamba A. 29. Brunner P. 31. Fati A. 19. Ilenikhena G. 50. Lienard Y. (G) 44. Nibombe S. 40. Stawiecki J. (G) 49. Toure I. 2. Vanderson	32. Adjei N. 33. Baldoni S. 9. Bamba M. 34. Bley M. 7. Fadiga B. 21. Kamara B. (G) 29. Karim D. 35. Leaudais L. 93. Mvuka Mugisha J.
Coaches
Pocognoli S.	Pantaloni O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 3)
63', Biereth M. ↓, Ilenikhena G. ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Dieng B. ⚽,
70', Ouattara K. ↓, Vanderson ↑,
70', Teze J. ↓, Fati A. ↑,
71', Zakaria D. 🟨,
75', Dieng B. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
75', Pagis P. ↓, Karim D. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Fati A. ⚽,
85', 1 - 2, Makengo J. ⚽, Karim D. (A),
87', 1 - 3, Karim D. ⚽, Cadiou N. (A),
90+1', Le Bris T. ↓, Mvuka Mugisha J. ↑,
90+1', Igor Silva ↓, Adjei N. ↑,
90+3', Balogun F. ↓, Brunner P. ↑,
90+5', Cadiou N. ↓, Bley M. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 1.

Recent performances by Monaco have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lorient is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Monaco is the team to beat.

There will not play in Monaco: Bamba A. (Illness) Cabral P. (Muscle Injury) Camara L. (International duty) Coulibaly M. (Red Card) Diatta K. (International duty) Hradecky L. (Knee Injury) Idumbo S. (Red Card) Kehrer T. (Yellow Cards) Mawissa C. (Injury) Minamino T. (Knee Injury) Pogba P. (Calf Injury) Salisu M. (Suspended)

There will not play in Lorient: Faye A. (Foot Injury) Katseris P. (Thigh Injury) Tosin A. (Knee Injury) Toure I. (Knee Injury) Yongwa D. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Monaco: Balogun F. (Injury) Fati A. (Muscle Injury) Vanderson (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Lorient: Soumano S. (Knee Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:22. (average 1.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Monaco won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 1.8:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Monaco	7	4	2	1	10:6	4	14
7	Lorient	7	3	2	2	7:6	1	11

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Monaco: 5.11% Lorient: 0.32%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
Coupe De France
10.01.26	Orleans - Monaco	1:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
03.01.26	Monaco - Lyon	1:3 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.25	Auxerre - Monaco	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Olympique Marseille - Monaco	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Monaco - Galatasaray	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWLW
- FC Lorient
Coupe De France
10.01.26	Hauts Lyonnais - Lorient	1:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
04.01.26	Lorient - Metz	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Le Gosier - Lorient	0:7 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Strasbourg - Lorient	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Lorient - Lyon	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
27.09.25	Lorient - Monaco	3:1
17.03.24	Monaco - Lorient	2:2
17.09.23	Lorient - Monaco	2:2
16.04.23	Monaco - Lorient	3:1
11.01.23	Lorient - Monaco	2:2
13.02.22	Monaco - Lorient	0:0
13.08.21	Lorient - Monaco	1:0

Upcoming Matches