Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
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Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
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Serbia	Arena Sport 6, Arena Sport 7
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South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
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Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
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Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Brest		Auxerre

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	4.1	Watch
	1.87	3.5	4.33
	1.98	3.35	3.95
	2.02	3.15	4.16
	1.95	3.43	4.01	Watch
	1.91	3.2	4
	2.02	3.46	4.32	Watch
	2	3.33	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.95)	3.34 ↑ (3.32)	4.11 ↑ (4.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
48.4%

Draw
28.5%

Auxerre
23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

28.9%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Brest have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Auxerre have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Brest - Auxerre Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Auxerre (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Brest (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Brest (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Brest will win (30 of 36 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.15% – 95.51%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Brest will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 8 - 80%). Auxerre (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Coudert G. (G) 12. Zogbe L. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 44. Coulibaly S. 27. Guindo D. 10. Del Castillo R. 13. Chotard J. 8. Magnetti H. 14. Labeau Lascary R. 17. Balde M. 19. Ajorque L.	16. Leon D. (G) 27. Sy L. 29. Senaya M. 20. Diomande S. 14. Mensah G. 34. Matondo R. 42. Owusu E. (C) 5. Danois K. 7. Casimir J. 9. Mara S. 23. Osman I.
Substitutes
18. Bourgault J. 4. Diaz Jr. M. 21. Kante I. Y. 36. Le Guen R. 2. Locko B. 1. Majecki R. (G) 33. Makalou H. 99. Mboup P. 24. Tousart L.	44. Cissokho M. 21. Coulibaly L. 40. De Percin T. (G) 36. Devernois T. 43. Diamalunda E. 18. Diousse A. 22. Oppegard F. 38. Petit Dol A. 31. Rodin R.
Coaches
Roy E.	Pelissier C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Mensah G. 🟨,
15', Balde M. ↓, Mboup P. ↑,
33', 1 - 0, Ajorque L. ⚽, Labeau Lascary R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Matondo R. ↓, Coulibaly L. ↑,
68', Labeau Lascary R. ↓, Tousart L. ↑,
70', Magnetti H. 🟨,
75', Del Castillo R. 🟨,
76', Casimir J. ↓, Diousse A. ↑,
76', Mensah G. ↓, Oppegard F. ↑,
76', Mara S. ↓, Rodin R. ↑,
79', 2 - 0, Chotard J. ⚽, Ajorque L. (A),
83', Guindo D. 🟨,
86', Mboup P. ↓, Locko B. ↑,
86', Danois K. ↓, Devernois T. ↑,
90+2', Owusu E. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brest won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Auxerre may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Auxerre has had a series of home games.

In this match, Brest is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Brest: Dina Ebimbe J. (International duty) Doumbia K. (International duty) Lala K. (Knee Injury) Le Cardinal J. (Red Card)

There will not play in Auxerre: Akpa C. (Inactive) Buayi-Kiala N. (Knee Injury) El Azzouzi O. (Red Card) Namaso D. (International duty) Sierralta F. (Injury) Sinayoko L. (International duty) Siwe T. (Knee Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Brest won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:17. (average 0.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Brest won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 0.8:0.9).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Brest: 0.35% Auxerre: 0.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7:12	-5	6
11	Brest	5	1	2	2	7:8	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
Coupe De France
19.12.25	Avranches - Brest	2:1 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
13.12.25	Rennes - Brest	3:1 ✺
05.12.25	Brest - Monaco	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Strasbourg - Brest	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Brest - Metz	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LLWWW
- AJ Auxerre
Coupe De France
21.12.25	Auxerre - Monaco	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Auxerre - Lille	3:4 ✺
07.12.25	Auxerre - Metz	3:1 ✺
29.11.25	Paris FC - Auxerre	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Auxerre - Lyon	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
14.02.25	Brest - Auxerre	2:2
27.09.24	Auxerre - Brest	3:0
14.05.23	Brest - Auxerre	1:0
02.10.22	Auxerre - Brest	1:1
French Ligue 2
11.02.19	Brest - Auxerre	1:0
31.08.18	Auxerre - Brest	0:2
09.03.18	Auxerre - Brest	1:2

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