Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 4

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect
China	Migu
Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+ 4, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab


	Brest		Paris FC

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.4	2.63	Watch
	2.25	3.5	3
	2.65	3.35	2.65
	2.29	3.69	3.05
	2.1	3.4	3.3
	2.71	3.54	2.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.12)	3.48 ↓ (3.57)	2.9 ↓ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
39.2%

Draw
27.6%

Paris FC
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

26.8%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

27.4%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brest's form might have worsened.

Paris FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paris FC's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brest, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paris FC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	7.4%	48.1%

Brest - Paris FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Brest will win (votes: 12 - 44.4%). Paris FC will win (votes: 13 - 48.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paris FC: 29.3% – 66.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Paris FC (votes: 12 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +0.5 - Brest (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Brest (1.50) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Paris FC (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Brest (votes: 9 - 39.1%). Paris FC (votes: 14 - 60.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Coudert G. (G) 77. Lala K. 5. Chardonnet B. (C) 4. Diaz Jr. M. 2. Locko B. 13. Chotard J. 23. Doumbia K. 33. Makalou H. 10. Del Castillo R. 19. Ajorque L. 17. Balde M.	16. Nkambadio O. (G) 31. Chergui S. 5. Mbow M. 6. Otavio 28. De Smet T. 4. Marchetti V. 21. Lopez M. (C) 33. Lees-Melou P. 10. Kebbal I. 9. Geubbels W. 27. Simon M.
Substitutes
18. Bourgault J. 7. Dina Ebimbe J. 27. Guindo D. 50. Jauny N. (G) 14. Labeau Lascary R. 26. Le Cardinal J. 36. Le Guen R. 9. Mboup P. 12. Zogbe L.	13. Cafaro M. 17. Camara A. 12. Dicko N. 7. Gory A. 15. Kolodziejczak T. 11. Krasso J. 20. Lopez J. 19. Sangui N. 35. Trapp K. (G)
Coaches
Roy E.	Gilli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
14', 0 - 1, Geubbels W. ⚽, Lopez M. (A),
23', Marchetti V. 🟨,
34', 0 - 2, Marchetti V. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Marchetti V. ↓, Camara A. ↑,
46', Balde M. ↓, Mboup P. ↑,
51', Lees-Melou P. 🟨,
52', 1 - 2, Del Castillo R. (Pen),
60', Simon M. ↓, Gory A. ↑,
61', Geubbels W. ↓, Krasso J. ↑,
68', Makalou H. ↓, Dina Ebimbe J. ↑,
78', Doumbia K. ↓, Labeau Lascary R. ↑,
84', Otavio 🟥,
86', Locko B. ↓, Guindo D. ↑,
87', Kebbal I. ↓, Kolodziejczak T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brest won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Brest may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Brest: Labeau Lascary R. (Knee Injury) Magnetti H. (Red Card) Majecki R. (Red Card) Tousart L. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Paris FC: Hamel P. (Hamstring Injury) Ikone J. (Lacking Match Fitness)

There are questionable in Brest: Dina Ebimbe J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Paris FC: Traore H. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Brest won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 0.9:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Brest won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
29.08.25	Lens - Brest	3:1 ✺
24.08.25	Toulouse - Brest	2:0 ✺
17.08.25	Brest - Lille	3:3 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Brest - Sassuolo	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Napoli - Brest	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLTTW
- Paris FC
French Ligue 1
31.08.25	Paris FC - Metz	3:2 ✺
23.08.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	5:2 ✺
17.08.25	Angers - Paris FC	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Nantes - Paris FC	2:3 ✺
06.08.25	Paris FC - UNFP	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
21.01.19	Paris FC - Brest	0:1
10.08.18	Brest - Paris FC	1:1
24.02.18	Paris FC - Brest	0:1
22.09.17	Brest - Paris FC	1:1
French Coupe de la Ligue
08.08.17	Paris FC - Brest	1:0 penalties
French Ligue 2
29.01.16	Brest - Paris FC	1:0
28.08.15	Paris FC - Brest	1:1

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