Match Info

League Two - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Memorial Stadium (Bristol)

Referee: Coy M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Paramount+


	Bristol Rovers		Exeter City

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.5	4.75
	1.75	3.60	4.40
	1.72	3.45	4.65
	1.77	3.76	4.8
	1.74	3.7	4.47	Watch
	1.74	3.7	4.6
	1.74	3.52	4.78	Watch
	1.75	3.55	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.62)	3.6 ↓ (4.16)	4.61 ↑ (4.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol Rovers
53.7%

Draw
26%

Exeter City
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

22.3%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

21.9%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	13.3%	13.3%

Bristol Rovers - Exeter City Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Bristol Rovers will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Exeter will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bristol Rovers: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol Rovers (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Bristol Rovers (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol Rovers (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Young B. (G) 2. James T. 4. Balmer K. 17. Kelly C. 5. Kilgour A. (C) 21. Smallwood R. 6. Mola C. 7. Forde S. 3. Sparkes J. 19. Harrison E. 29. Cavegn F.	1. Bycroft J. (G) 2. Samuel L. 6. Taylor J. 5. Fitzwater J. (C) 3. Woodhouse L. 31. Doyle-Hayes J. 16. Cummins C. 7. Edwards G. 12. Cole R. 23. Sutherland E. 32. Rose D.
Substitutes
32. Binns C. (G) 22. Gough K. 10. Kamwa B. 14. Purrington B. 9. Quigley J. 8. Russell-Denny R. 27. Sanyaolu P.	20. Birch G. 10. Gordon J. 14. Kite H. 18. Oakes L. 11. Oluwabori A. 8. Perry T. 22. Phillips F. (G)
Coaches
Evans S.	Taylor M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Edwards G. 🟨,
40', Evans S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Harrison E. 🟨,
64', Forde S. ↓, Russell-Denny R. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Cavegn F. ⚽, Kilgour A. (A),
68', Taylor J. ↓, Oluwabori A. ↑,
77', Edwards G. ↓, Birch G. ↑,
79', Harrison E. ↓, Quigley J. ↑,
85', Doyle-Hayes J. ↓, Gordon J. ↑,
89', Cavegn F. ↓, Kamwa B. ↑,
90', Sparkes J. ↓, Purrington B. ↑,

Preview

One of the top-ranked clubs faces a lower-table side fighting for vital survival points (ranked 6th in the Promotion ~ League Two PlayoffsSemi~finals) and 20th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bristol Rovers won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Bristol Rovers could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bristol Rovers carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Bristol Rovers: Harbottle R. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Exeter: Turns E. (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Bristol Rovers: Gough K. (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Exeter: Cox S. (Injury) Oluwabori A. (Inactive).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Bristol Rovers has recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:37 (averaging 1.4:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bristol Rovers against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 14:17 goals (averaging 1.6:1.9 per game).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Bristol Rovers: 8.17% Exeter: 0.81%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	15:17	-2	15
14	Exeter	10	3	3	4	6:6	0	12

Last Results with these Odds

Exeter City - the odds 4.54 are the expected chance of winning is 20.43%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol Rovers
English League Two
19.09.26	Gillingham - Bristol Rovers	3:0 ✺
12.09.26	Grimsby Town - Bristol Rovers	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Bristol Rovers - Rotherham United	1:0 ✺
01.09.26	Bristol Rovers - Colchester United	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Crawley Town - Bristol Rovers	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWWW
- Exeter City
English EFL Trophy
22.09.26	Cheltenham Town - Exeter City	3:2 penalties ✺
English League Two
19.09.26	Exeter City - Tranmere Rovers	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Port Vale - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
08.09.26	Exeter City - Tottenham Hotspur U21	2:0 ✺
English League Two
05.09.26	Exeter City - Walsall	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
12.04.25	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	1:2
26.12.24	Exeter City - Bristol Rovers	3:1
English EFL Trophy
29.10.24	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	2:3
English League One
03.02.24	Exeter City - Bristol Rovers	0:1
23.01.24	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	0:1
29.12.22	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	3:4
01.10.22	Exeter City - Bristol Rovers	2:2

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