Match Info

League Two - Round 3

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: The Broadfield Stadium (Crawley)

Referee: Doughty L. (Eng)


	Crawley Town		Bristol Rovers

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.8	1.66
	2.95	3.60	2.20
	4.1	3.6	1.72
	4.28	4.09	1.78
	3.28	3.53	2.08	Watch
	4.15	4	1.74
	4.52	3.81	1.71	Watch
	4.2	3.8	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4 ↑ (3.32)	3.78 ↑ (3.29)	1.83 ↓ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crawley Town
23.6%

Draw
24.9%

Bristol Rovers
51.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.8%

28%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

27.5%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crawley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Bristol Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bristol Rovers's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bristol Rovers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Crawley Town - Bristol Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Crawley will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Bristol Rovers will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Michalski N. (G) 24. Odimayo A. 6. Farquharson P. 5. Barker C. 16. Russell J. 22. Adeyemo A. 20. Arthurs J. (C) 25. Krasniqi K. 17. Kamara O. 8. Watson L. 11. Aderoju O.	1. Young B. (G) 2. James T. 4. Balmer K. 26. Harbottle R. 14. Purrington B. 6. Mola C. 21. Smallwood R. (C) 7. Forde S. 24. Leigh T. 10. Kamwa B. 29. Cavegn F.
Substitutes
14. Di Biase G. 35. Ewens-Findlay T. 31. Izquierdo J. (G) 27. Morgan D. 9. Orsi-Dadomo D. 12. Richards L. 28. Tinsdale N.	11. Aitchison J. 32. Binns C. (G) 19. Harrison E. 17. Kelly C. 9. Quigley J. 8. Russell-Denny R. 27. Sanyaolu P.
Coaches
Kazim-Richards C.	Evans S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
23', 0 - 1, James T. ⚽,
29', Leigh T. 🟨,
31', Watson L. 🟨,
41', 0 - 2, Kamwa B. ⚽, Balmer K. (A),
43', Balmer K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Odimayo A. ↓, Morgan D. ↑,
48', Krasniqi K. 🟨,
57', Krasniqi K. ↓, Orsi-Dadomo D. ↑,
57', Adeyemo A. ↓, Ewens-Findlay T. ↑,
68', James T. 🟨,
80', Kamara O. ↓, Richards L. ↑,
80', Russell J. ↓, Di Biase G. ↑,
81', Harbottle R. 🟨,
89', Morgan D. 🟨,
90+1', Cavegn F. ↓, Harrison E. ↑,
90+4', Leigh T. ↓, Aitchison J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crawley won 3.

Crawley has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bristol Rovers has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Crawley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Bristol Rovers is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There are questionable in Crawley: Mannone V. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Crawley won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 17:20. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Crawley won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:7. (average 1.6:0.9).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Bristol Rovers: 8.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	15:17	-2	15
24	Crawley	8	1	2	5	8:15	-7	5

Last Results with these Odds

Bristol Rovers - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.18%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crawley Town
English League Two
22.08.26	Rochdale - Crawley Town	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Crawley Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Watford - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
03.08.26	York City - Crawley Town	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
31.07.26	Crawley Town - Reading	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WLLWL
- Bristol Rovers
English EFL Trophy
25.08.26	Bristol Rovers - Chelsea U21	2:3 penalties ✺
English League Two
22.08.26	Bristol Rovers - Newport County	5:3 ✺
15.08.26	York City - Bristol Rovers	3:2 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Bristol Rovers - Peterborough United	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
21.07.26	Forest Green Rovers - Bristol Rovers	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
11.04.26	Bristol Rovers - Crawley Town	3:1
25.10.25	Crawley Town - Bristol Rovers	4:0
English League One
22.03.25	Crawley Town - Bristol Rovers	1:0
16.11.24	Bristol Rovers - Crawley Town	0:0
English EFL Trophy
05.12.23	Crawley Town - Bristol Rovers	2:1
English League Cup
09.08.22	Crawley Town - Bristol Rovers	1:0
English League Two
08.03.22	Crawley Town - Bristol Rovers	1:2

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