Match Info

FA Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Old Road (Briton Ferry)


	Briton Ferry Llansawel		Pen-y-Bont

	1	X	2
	4.84	4.01	1.53
	25.00	12.33	1.00	Watch
	4.62	4.2	1.57
	4.65	3.91	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.78 ↑ (4.65)	6.11 ↑ (3.91)	1.4 ↓ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Briton Ferry Llansawel
10.4%

Draw
16.7%

Pen-y-Bont
72.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.8%

22.4%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18%

21.5%

61.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Briton Ferry Llansawel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Briton Ferry Llansawel's form might have worsened.

Pen-y-Bont has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pen-y-Bont's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Briton Ferry Llansawel than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Briton Ferry Llansawel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pen-y-Bont, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen y Bont Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
2nd Half (0 - 2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Briton Ferry won 2.

Recent form of Briton Ferry has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pen-y-Bont is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Pen-y-Bont is a strong favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Briton Ferry won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Briton Ferry won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Briton Ferry Llansawel
Welsh Cymru Premier
11.10.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Gap Connahs Quay	0:3 ✺
07.10.25	Barry Town United - Briton Ferry Llansawel	0:1 ✺
03.10.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Flint Town United - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:1 ✺
23.09.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Llanelli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWTLL
- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
11.10.25	The New Saints - Pen-y-Bont	6:2 ✺
07.10.25	Pen-y-Bont - Haverfordwest County	2:1 ✺
03.10.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	1:0 ✺
23.09.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Pen-y-Bont	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
03.10.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	0:0
Welsh League Cup
10.09.25	Pen-y-Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:3 penalties
Welsh Cymru Premier
24.09.24	Pen-y-Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel	0:1
11.08.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	0:2
Welsh League Cup
03.08.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	0:3
Welsh Division 1
28.12.18	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Pen-y-Bont	2:2

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