Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 16

Date: 28 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla (Adrogue)

Referee: Carreras J. (Arg)


	Brown de Adrogué		Tristán Suárez

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.8
	1.98	3.25	3.5
	1.95	3.2	4
	2.04	3.19	4.14
	2.05	3.1	3.4
	2	3.3	3.92
	2.03	3.25	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.11)	3.23 ↑ (3.22)	3.76 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brown de Adrogué
46.3%

Draw
28.9%

Tristán Suárez
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

28.4%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

27.5%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brown de Adrogué has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Tristán Suárez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brown de Adrogué than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tristán Suárez than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Brown de Adrogué - Tristán Suárez Predictions

Users Predictions: Brown de Adrogué will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ramirez H. (G) 4. Rosales P. 2. Kippes A. 6. Heredia M. 3. Sanchez A. 5. Jerez Silva L. (C) 7. Pacchini J. 11. Perinciolo F. 8. Lavezzi A. 9. Mendoza J. 10. Vidal P.	1. Giovini S. (G) 4. Cardozo L. 2. Pared G. 6. Martinez L. 3. Pantaleone N. 8. Nunez P. 5. Velez R. 7. Montenegro M. 11. Ortega T. 10. Datolo J. 9. Bergessio G.
Substitutes
17. Belleggia L. 19. Castillo L. 16. Da C. H. 12. Diaz F. (G) 20. Gissi K. 13. Lopez T. 15. Lovazzano L. 18. Obregon B. 14. Zaragoza L.	15. Almada A. 14. Alvarez N. 17. Arreguin E. 13. Canzoniero L. 12. Mendive J. (G) 18. Miranda B. 16. Ruiz P. 19. Villalba L. 20. Zarza J.
Coaches
Vico P.	Di Noia G.

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 10 and 17 in the zone Primera Nacional (Relegation ~ Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Brown de Adrogué won 2.

Recent matches Brown de Adrogué is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Tristán Suárez is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Tristán Suárez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Brown de Adrogué is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Brown de Adrogué won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Brown de Adrogué won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brown de Adrogué
Argentinian Primera Nacional
21.05.23	Chacarita Juniors - Brown de Adrogué	0:0 ✺
14.05.23	Brown de Adrogué - Mitre	0:0 ✺
07.05.23	Chaco For Ever - Brown de Adrogué	1:1 ✺
29.04.23	Brown de Adrogué - Independiente Rivadavia	0:0 ✺
23.04.23	Deportivo Maipú - Brown de Adrogué	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TTTTL
- Deportivo Tristán Suárez
Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.05.23	Tristán Suárez - Quilmes	0:0 ✺
12.05.23	Gimnasia Jujuy - Tristán Suárez	1:0 ✺
06.05.23	Tristán Suárez - Ferro Carril Oeste	2:4 ✺
30.04.23	Deportivo Riestra - Tristán Suárez	2:0 ✺
23.04.23	Tristán Suárez - Racing de Córdoba	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.06.22	Brown de Adrogué - Tristán Suárez	1:0
09.10.21	Tristán Suárez - Brown de Adrogué	2:2
17.06.21	Brown de Adrogué - Tristán Suárez	2:1
Argentinian Primera B
08.11.15	Brown de Adrogué - Tristán Suárez	0:0
20.06.15	Tristán Suárez - Brown de Adrogué	1:1
22.10.14	Brown de Adrogué - Tristán Suárez	0:0

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