Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 9

Date: 15 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Augusto Bauer (Brusque)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Brusque		Tombense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	2.8	3.5
	2.12	2.78	3.55	Watch
	2.1	2.87	3.93
				Watch
	2.05	2.7	3.8
	2.02	2.76	4.15	Watch
	2.12	2.78	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.82)	2.78 ↓ (3)	3.75 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brusque
43.5%

Draw
32.4%

Tombense
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

29.7%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

32%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brusque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brusque's form might have worsened.

Tombense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brusque, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Brusque - Tombense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Brusque (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 7. Biel Fonseca 48. Caio Gomes 27. Diego Mathias 2. Everton Alemao (C) 23. Guilherme Pira 30. Jean Mangabeira 19. Joao Veras 28. Mauricio Ribeiro 10. Robinho 4. Torres J.	1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 8. Fabricio Dias 3. Ianson 10. Ingro 11. Jefferson Renan 2. Julio Henrique 6. Kaike 7. Pedro Oliveira 5. Rickson 4. Roger Carvalho (C) 9. Ze Eduardo
Substitutes
15. Alex Paulino 22. Andre Luiz (G) 99. Bahia 50. Bernardo 17. Clinton U. 6. Italo 8. Joao Vithor 77. Neto 29. Thiago Freitas 18. Thomaz	21. Adson 18. Anderson Ligeiro 17. Andre Cardoso 20. Cleiton 22. Douglas Coutinho 12. Douglas Marques (G) 15. Fernando 16. Joao Vitor 13. Leo Pereira 19. Rafael Silva 14. Wesley
Coaches
Gouveia F.	Raul Cabral

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Guilherme Pira ↓, Clinton U. ↑,
66', Robinho ↓, Bernardo ↑,
69', 🟨,
75', 🟨,
79', Jefferson Renan ↓, Cleiton ↑,
79', Ingro ↓, Anderson Ligeiro ↑,
83', Julio Henrique ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
83', Fabricio Dias ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
84', Anderson Ligeiro 🟨,
88', Pedro Oliveira ↓, Adson ↑,
90+3', Adson 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 11).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Brusque will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Brusque won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Brusque won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brusque FC
Brazilian Serie C
01.06.25	Confiança - Brusque	4:1 ✺
26.05.25	Brusque - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
20.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Brusque	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
17.05.25	Ponte Preta - Brusque	1:4 ✺
10.05.25	Brusque - ABC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LWLWL
- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie C
01.06.25	Tombense - Anápolis	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	Ypiranga - Tombense	1:0 ✺
17.05.25	Tombense - CS Alagoano	0:0 ✺
11.05.25	Londrina - Tombense	1:1 ✺
03.05.25	Tombense - Itabaiana	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
30.08.22	Tombense - Brusque	1:0
20.05.22	Brusque - Tombense	1:0
Brazilian Serie C
20.09.20	Brusque - Tombense	1:0

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