Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Ligga Arena (Curitiba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video


	Athletico Paranaense		Brusque

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.7	7.5
	1.47	3.75	6.25
	1.47	3.95	7.4
	1.46	3.9	7.24
	1.52	3.73	7.11	Watch
	1.5	3.7	7
	1.45	4.1	7.8
	1.47	3.95	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.37)	3.85 ↓ (4.1)	7.21 ↓ (9.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletico Paranaense
62.9%

Draw
24.2%

Brusque
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.9%

22.7%

9.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

17.6%

12.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletico Paranaense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Brusque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletico Paranaense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brusque than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Athletico Paranaense - Brusque Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletico PR (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mycael (G) 14. Moraes K. 28. Habraao 3. Leo 37. Esquivel L. 8. Giuliano (C) 5. Felipinho 57. Joao Cruz 11. Isaac 70. Renan Peixoto 19. Luiz Fernando	1. Matheus Nogueira (G) 29. Thiago Freitas 2. Everton Alemao (C) 4. Torres J. 66. Alex Ruan 94. Paulinho Moccelin 15. Alex Paulino 30. Jean Mangabeira 27. Diego Mathias 90. Alvaro 7. Biel Fonseca
Substitutes
27. Alan Kardec 45. Belezi 98. Falcao 4. Figueiredo T. 61. Leo Derik 88. Patrick 15. Peralta F. 31. Raul 23. Santos (G) 30. Tevis 7. Velasco K. 10. Zapelli B.	22. Andre Luiz (G) 39. Carlos Biro 6. Italo 19. Joao Veras 28. Mauricio Ribeiro 9. Pollero R. 16. Roberto Rosa 10. Robinho 18. Thomaz 11. Vinicius Faria
Coaches
Correia J.	Gouveia F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Moraes K. ⚽,
43', Thiago Freitas 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Biel Fonseca ↓, Italo ↑,
46', Thiago Freitas ↓, Thomaz ↑,
46', Alvaro ↓, Joao Veras ↑,
54', Luiz Fernando ↓, Velasco K. ↑,
54', Giuliano ↓, Falcao ↑,
58', Moraes K. 🟨,
62', Paulinho Moccelin ↓, Robinho ↑,
62', Diego Mathias ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
62', Moraes K. ↓, Belezi ↑,
63', Joao Cruz ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
69', Isaac ↓, Tevis ↑,
72', Alex Ruan 🟨,
78', Robinho 🟨,
79', Leo 🟨,
86', Belezi 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-0. 2nd leg.

Athletico PR is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Brusque has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Athletico PR is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Athletico PR won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.25	Vila Nova - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
08.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
04.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Botafogo SP	1:4 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Brusque - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
24.04.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLTL
- Brusque FC
Brazilian Serie C
17.05.25	Ponte Preta - Brusque	1:4 ✺
10.05.25	Brusque - ABC	0:1 ✺
04.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Brusque	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Brusque - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
27.04.25	Brusque - Ypiranga	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Brusque - Athletico Paranaense	0:0

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