Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs - Final

Date: 21 June 2025, Saturday


	Burgos Promesas		Castellonense

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3
	2.21	3.15	3.93
				Watch
	2.01	3.34	3.51
	2.12	3.2	3.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 (2.12)	3.2 (3.2)	3.4 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burgos Promesas
43.7%

Draw
29%

Castellonense
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.4%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

29.2%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burgos Promesas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Castellonense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos Promesas than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castellonense than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Burgos Promesas - Castellonense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', 1 - 0, Ventosa E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Extra Time (0 - 0)
Penalties (6 - 5)
1, (Pen),
1, (Pen),
2, (Pen),
2, (Pen),
3, (Pen),
3, (Pen),
4, (Pen),
4, (Pen),
5, (Pen),
5, (Pen),
6, (Pen),
6, (Pen),

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Burgos Promesas could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Burgos Promesas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Castellonense - the odds 3.17 are the expected chance of winning is 28.69%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burgos Promesas
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
14.06.25	Castellonense - Burgos Promesas	1:0 ✺
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
07.06.25	Atlético Tordesillas - Burgos Promesas	3:1 ✺
01.06.25	Burgos Promesas - Atlético Tordesillas	3:0 ✺
24.05.25	Burgos Promesas - Arandina	3:1 ✺
17.05.25	Arandina - Burgos Promesas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLWWT
- UD Castellonense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
14.06.25	Castellonense - Burgos Promesas	1:0 ✺
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 6
07.06.25	Castellonense - Utiel	1:1 ET ✺
01.06.25	Utiel - Castellonense	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	La Nucía - Castellonense	1:2 ✺
17.05.25	Castellonense - La Nucía	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
14.06.25	Castellonense - Burgos Promesas	1:0

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